Visualizing Confidence in Cluster-based Ensemble Weather Forecast Analyses

In meteorology, cluster analysis is frequently used to determine representative trends in ensemble weather predictions in a selected spatio-temporal region, e.g., to reduce a set of ensemble members to simplify and improve their analysis. Identified clusters (i.e., groups of similar members), however, can be very sensitive to small changes of the selected region, so that clustering results can be misleading and bias subsequent analyses. In this article, we — a team of visualization scientists and meteorologists-deliver visual analytics solutions to analyze the sensitivity of clustering results with respect to changes of a selected region. We propose an interactive visual interface that enab…