Trans-boundary land cover changes and its influences on water crisis: Case study of the Aras River

Abstract In a watershed, disturbing land covers (LCs) are one of the most important factors in the balance and flow rate of water. This study aimed to monitor and model LC changes in the upstream of the Aras River Basin in Turkey over 1984, 2002, 2010 and 2016. The main ground to conduct such an analysis was to mitigate severe economic, social and ecological consequences driven by agricultural activities and dam construction along with probable climate change, which would decrease the water flow from the Aras River to Caspian Sea. The study approach consisted of four main steps: 1) producing LC maps using Landsat satellite images, 2) performing the change analysis, 3) identifying the change…