0000000001308061
AUTHOR
Olivier Gimenez
Climate driven life histories: the case of the Mediterranean Storm petrel
Seabirds are affected by changes in the marine ecosystem. The influence of climatic factors on marine food webs can be reflected in long-term seabird population changes. We modelled the survival and recruitment of the Mediterranean storm petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis) using a 21-year mark-recapture dataset involving almost 5000 birds. We demonstrated a strong influence of prebreeding climatic conditions on recruitment age and of rainfall and breeding period conditions on juvenile survival. The results suggest that the juvenile survival rate of the Mediterranean subspecies may not be negatively affected by the predicted features of climate change, i.e., warmer summers and lower rai…
Forecasting ocean warming impacts on seabird demography: a case study on the European storm petrel
Bottom-up climatic forcing has been shown to be influential for a variety of marine taxa, but evidence on seabird populations is scarce. Seasonal variation in environmental conditions can have an indirect effect on subsequent reproduction, which, given the longevity and single-brooding of seabirds, may affect population dynamics. Our study focuses on linking the effect of oceanographic conditions (from 1991 to 2013) to the fecundity and consequently pop - ulation growth rate of the Mediterranean subspecies of the European storm petrel Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis. In this study, we examined 23 yr of > 5400 capture–mark−recaptures (CMR) and modelled the probability of skipping reproductio…
Testing hypotheses in evolutionary ecology with imperfect detection: capture-recapture structural equation modeling.
8 pages; International audience; Studying evolutionary mechanisms in natural populations often requires testing multifactorial scenarios of causality involving direct and indirect relationships among individual and environmental variables. It is also essential to account for the imperfect detection of individuals to provide unbiased demographic parameter estimates. To cope with these issues, we developed a new approach combining structural equation models with capture-recapture models (CR-SEM) that allows the investigation of competing hypotheses about individual and environmental variability observed in demographic parameters. We employ Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in a Bayesian frame…
Unravelling the scientific debate on how to address wolf-dog hybridization in Europe
Anthropogenic hybridization is widely perceived as a threat to the conservation of biodiversity. Nevertheless, to date, relevant policy and management interventions are unresolved and highly convoluted. While this is due to the inherent complexity of the issue, we hereby hypothesize that a lack of agreement concerning management goals and approaches, within the scientific community, may explain the lack of social awareness on this phenomenon, and the absence of effective pressure on decision-makers. By focusing on wolf x dog hybridization in Europe, we hereby (a) assess the state of the art of issues on wolf x dog hybridization within the scientific community, (b) assess the conceptual base…
Supplement 1. BUGS code to implement the CR-SEM approach.
File List BUGScodes.txt (md5: 065a902fc724b73a8db114ad6c8875ae) Description BUGS codes for fitting SEM-CR models to the blackbird and blue tits data.
Appendix A. Model selection.
Model selection.
Appendix B. Posterior predictive checks.
Posterior predictive checks.
Appendix C. Posterior distributions of the CR-SEM parameters (conditional on the covariates being in the model).
Posterior distributions of the CR-SEM parameters (conditional on the covariates being in the model).