A regional approach for exploring the relation between sediment transport and coastal erosion in Sicily

To study on a regional basis, the relation between fluvial sediment delivery and coastal erosion, the historical record of coastline migration of Sicily was analyzed with respect to the estimated sediment delivery to the coast obtained from the spatially distributed sediment delivery WaTEM/SEDEM model. The latter was directly acquired from the ESDAC database as a 25 m pixel layers, being based on the combination between the RUSLE model and a transport capacity routing algorithm. At the same time, the coastline-evolution (accretion/retreatment) data for 1960/1994 and 1994/2012 intervals were processed. This dataset, provided by ISPRA (Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Resear…

Landform classification: a high-performing mapping unit partitioning tool for landslide susceptibility assessment—a test in the Imera River basin (northern Sicily, Italy)

In landslide susceptibility studies, the type of mapping unit adopted affects the obtained models and maps in terms of accuracy, robustness, spatial resolution and geomorphological adequacy. To evaluate the optimal selection of these units, a test has been carried out in an important catchment of northern Sicily (the Imera River basin), where the spatial relationships between a set of predictors and an inventory of 1608 rotational/translational landslides were analysed using the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) method. In particular, landslide susceptibility models were prepared and compared by adopting four different types of mapping units: the largely adopted grid cells (PX…

The Role of Wastewater in Controlling Fluvial Erosion Processes on Clayey Bedrock

In recent decades, fluvial erosion processes in highly anthropized areas are mainly associated with in-stream gravel mining activities or with the presence of artificial reservoirs which have increased the erosive capacity of the river as a consequence of the reduced sediment transport or the modification of the longitudinal profile of the channel. On the other hand, the role of pollutants in the degradation processes of soils with a predominantly clayey component is little known. The present study, through chemical analyses of water and mineralogical–geotechnical analyses of clayey soil samples taken along some river channels in central Italy in correspondence with water treatment pl…

Mapping Susceptibility to Debris Flows Triggered by Tropical Storms: A Case Study of the San Vicente Volcano Area (El Salvador, CA)

In this study, an inventory of storm-triggered debris flows performed in the area of the San Vicente volcano (El Salvador, CA) was used to calibrate predictive models and prepare a landslide susceptibility map. The storm event struck the area in November 2009 as the result of the simultaneous action of low-pressure system 96E and Hurricane Ida. Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) was employed to model the relationships between a set of environmental variables and the locations of the debris flows. Validation of the models was performed by splitting 100 random samples of event and non-event 10 m pixels into training and test subsets. The validation results revealed an excellent (…

Rockfall hazards of Mount Pellegrino area (Sicily, Southern Italy)

A map derived by rockfall analysis at Mount Pellegrino is presented herein. The study area is affected by several phenomena of rockfall which caused numerous damage and a strong social and economic impact. Official reports and maps that give a general assessment of rockfall hazard are available in this respect, however, it would be advisable to provide a more specific cartographic support useful for land management and planning. The drafting of new maps showing the rockfall runout areas is an additional tool that may be used in conjunction with the existing maps as a means of risk mitigation and reduction. On the basis of geological, geomorphological, and geomechanical analysis and exploiti…

Analysis of the Rockfall Phenomena Contributing to the Evolution of a Pocket Beach Area Using Traditional and Remotely Acquired Data (Lo Zingaro Nature Reserve, Southern Italy)

The coastal domain of central western Sicily is characterized by the presence of rocky coasts, which mainly consist of pocket beaches situated between bedrock headlands that constitute ecological niches of great touristic and economic value. In this peculiar morphodynamic system, the sedimentary contributions are mainly derived from the rockfall that affects the back of nearby cliffs or the sediment supply of small streams that flow into it. In this study, we investigated the geomorphological processes and related landforms that contribute to the evolution of a pocket beach area located in a coastal sector of NW Sicily Island. The cliffs in this are affected by several rockfalls, and deposi…

Susceptibility analysis for seismically-induced landslides: application to the 2001 earthquakes in El Salvador (C.A.)

<p>The geodynamic context in which El Salvador is located, made of a convergent structure characterized by the interaction among six different plates, together with the lithological characteristics of the outcropping rocks and soils (mainly corresponding to deeply weathered acid pyroclastites, basic effusive rocks and volcanic ashes), are responsible for the very high seismically-induced landslide susceptibility of the country. These predisposing factors were decisive on the occurrence of thousands of seismically-induced landslides caused by two huge earthquakes on 13<sup>th</sup> January and 13<sup>th</sup> February 2001…

Predicting the landslides triggered by the 2009 96E/Ida tropical storms in the Ilopango caldera area (El Salvador, CA): optimizing MARS-based model building and validation strategies

The main topic of this research was to evaluate the effect in the performance of stochastic landslide susceptibility models, produced by differences between the triggering events of the calibration and validation datasets. In the Caldera Ilopango area (El Salvador), MARS (multivariate adaptive regression splines)-based susceptibility modeling was applied using a set of physical–environmental predictors and two remotely recognized landslide inventories: one dated at 2003 (1503 landslides), which was the result of a normal rainfall season, and one which was produced by the combined effect of the Ida hurricane and the 96E tropical depression in 2009 (2237 landslides). Both the event inventorie…

Predicting sediment deposition rate in check-dams using machine learning techniques and high-resolution DEMs

Sediments accumulated in check dams are a valuable measure to estimate soil erosion rates. Here, geographic information systems (GIS) and three machine learning techniques (MARS-multivariate adaptive regression splines, RF-random forest and SVM-support vector machine) were used, for the first time, to predict sediment deposition rate (SR) in check-dams located in six watersheds in SW Spain. There, 160 dry-stone check dams (~ 77.8 check-dams km−2), accumulated sediments during a period that varied from 11 to 23 years. The SR was estimated in former research using a topographical method and a high-resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) (average of 0.14 m3 ha−1 year−1). Nine environmental-to…

Combining multi-typologies landslide susceptibility maps: a case study for the Visso area (central Italy)

The research proposes a simple but geomorphologically adequate method to produce a combined landslide susceptibility map. In fact, in a logic of real use, offering type-specific landslide susceptibility maps to land use planners and administration could be not a successful solution. On the other hand, the simple grouping of more types of landslides could be misleading for model calibration considering that the relationships between slope failures and geo-environmental predictors should be conveyed by the abundance of each type of landslide resulting not specific and diagnostic for each typology. In this test, after having produced independent models for flow, slide and complex landslide by …

Predicting Earthquake-Induced Landslides by Using a Stochastic Modeling Approach: A Case Study of the 2001 El Salvador Coseismic Landslides

In January and February 2001, El Salvador was hit by two strong earthquakes that triggered thousands of landslides, causing 1259 fatalities and extensive damage. The analysis of aerial and SPOT-4 satellite images allowed us to map 6491 coseismic landslides, mainly debris slides and flows that occurred in volcanic epiclastites and pyroclastites. Four different multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) models were produced using different predictors and landslide inventories which contain slope failures triggered by an extreme rainfall event in 2009 and those induced by the earthquakes of 2001. In a predictive analysis, three validation scenarios were employed: the first and the second …

Investigating Limits in Exploiting Assembled Landslide Inventories for Calibrating Regional Susceptibility Models: A Test in Volcanic Areas of El Salvador

This research is focused on the evaluation of the reliability of regional landslide susceptibility models obtained by exploiting inhomogeneous (for quality, resolution and/or triggering related type and intensity) collected inventories for calibration. At a large-scale glance, merging more inventories can result in well-performing models hiding potential strong predictive deficiencies. An example of the limits that such kinds of models can display is given by a landslide susceptibility study, which was carried out for a large sector of the coastal area of El Salvador, where an apparently well-performing regional model (AUC = 0.87) was obtained by regressing a dataset through multivariate ad…

Soil Erosion and Deposition Rate Inside an Artificial Reservoir in Central Italy: Bathymetry versus RUSLE and Morphometry

This study, using different direct and indirect methodologies, evaluated the sedimentation rate in an artificial reservoir in central Italy. This reservoir is regionally representative and was built in the 1960s for hydroelectric purposes; it has experienced a strong decrease in trap efficiency and a loss of over 70% of the stored water volume. Direct measurements of the lake bottom bathymetry, carried out in 2006 and 2015, and 3D reconstructions performed in a GIS environment, made it possible to calculate the volume of filling material and to verify an increasing trend in the sedimentation rate since 2006. The sample reservoir denudation rate was compared with that obtained using the Revi…

Optimal slope units partitioning in landslide susceptibility mapping

In landslide susceptibility modeling, the selection of the mapping units is a very relevant topic both in terms of geomorphological adequacy and suitability of the models and final maps. In this paper, a test to integrate pixels and slope units is presented. MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines) modeling was applied to assess landslide susceptibility based on a 12 predictors and a 1608 cases database. A pixel-based model was prepared and the scores zoned into 10 different types of slope units, obtained by differently combining two half-basin (HB) and four landform classification (LCL) coverages. The predictive performance of the 10 models were then compared to select the best perf…

Improving statistical methodologies for landslide susceptibility modelling at regional and basin scale. Applications in the Sicilian and Salvadoran territory

An Approach for the Validation of a Coastal Erosion Vulnerability Index: An Application in Sicily

In recent decades, coastal erosion phenomena have increased due to climate change. The increased frequency and intensity of extreme events and the poor sediment supply by anthropized river basins (dams, river weirs, culverts, etc.) have a crucial role in coastal erosion. Therefore, an integrated analysis of coastal erosion is crucial to produce detailed and accurate coastal erosion vulnerability information to support mitigation strategies. This research aimed to assess the erosion vulnerability of the Sicilian coast, also including a validation procedure of the obtained scenario. The coastal vulnerability was computed by means of the CeVI (Coastal Erosion Vulnerability Index) approach, whi…

Investigating the Effects of Cell Size in Statistical Landslide Susceptibility Modelling for Different Landslide Typologies: A Test in Central–Northern Sicily

Optimally sizing grid cells is a relevant research issue in landslide susceptibility evaluation. In fact, the size of the adopted mapping units influences several aspects spanning from statistical (the number of positive/negative cases and prevalence and resolution/precision trade-off) and purely geomorphological (the representativeness of the mapping units and the diagnostic areas) to cartographic (the suitability of the obtained prediction images for the final users) topics. In this paper, the results of landslide susceptibility modelling in a 343 km2 catchment for three different types of landslides (rotational/translational slides, slope flows and local flows) using different pixel-size…

Evaluation of debris flow susceptibility in El Salvador (CA): a comparison between Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) and Binary Logistic Regression (BLR)

In the studies of landslide susceptibility assessment, which have been developed in recent years, statistical methods have increasingly been applied. Among all, the BLR (Binary Logistic Regression) certainly finds a more extensive application while MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines), despite the good performance and the innovation of the strategies of analysis, only recently began to be employed as a statistical tool for predicting landslide occurrence. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the predictive performance and identify possible drawbacks of the two statistical techniques mentioned above, focusing in particular on the prediction of debris flows. To this aim, an…

Combining multi-typologies landslide susceptibility maps: a case study for the Visso area (central Italy)

The research proposes a simple but geomorphologically adequate method to produce a combined landslide susceptibility map. In fact, in a logic of real use, offering type-specific landslide susceptibility maps to land use planners and administration could be not a successful solution. On the other hand, the simple grouping of more types of landslides could be misleading for model calibration considering that the relationships between slope failures and geo-environmental predictors should be conveyed by the abundance of each type of landslide resulting not specific and diagnostic for each typology. In this test, after having produced independent models for flow, slide and complex landslide by …