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RESEARCH PRODUCT

Weibull Prediction Limits for a Future Number of Failures Under Parametric Uncertainty

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In this paper, we present an accurate procedure, called “within-sample prediction of order statistics,” to obtain prediction limits for the number of failures that will be observed in a future inspection of a sample of units, based only on the results of the first in-service inspection of the same sample. The failure-time of such units is modeled with a two-parameter Weibull distribution indexed by scale and shape parameters β and δ, respectively. It will be noted that in the literature only the case is considered when the scale parameter β is unknown, but the shape parameter δ is known. As a rule, in practice the Weibull shape parameter δ is not known. Instead it is estimated subjectively or from relevant data. Thus, its value is uncertain. This δ uncertainty may contribute greater uncertainty to the construction of prediction limits for a future number of failures. In this paper, we consider the case when both parameters β and δ are unknown. The technique proposed here for constructing prediction limits emphasizes pivotal quantities relevant for obtaining ancillary statistics and represents a special case of the method of invariant embedding of sample statistics into a performance index applicable whenever the statistical problem is invariant under a group of transformations, which acts transitively on the parameter space. Application to other distributions could follow directly.