6533b7d4fe1ef96bd1261dbd
RESEARCH PRODUCT
Variabilité de la température entre 1951 et 2014 en Allemagne associée à l’évolution de la floraison des pommiers.
Albin UllmannSarah-sophie WeilPierre Camberlinsubject
breakpoint[SDV.SA.AGRO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Agronomy0106 biological scienceschangement climatiqueapple bloom010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciencesPhenologyAllemagneApple treeGeneral MedicineBiologyphenology010603 evolutionary biology01 natural sciencesphénologieHorticultureclimate change[SDU.STU.CL] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/ClimatologyNorth Atlantic oscillationGermanyfloraison des pommierspoint de ruptureBloom0105 earth and related environmental sciencesdescription
Apple tree bloom onset in Germany has advanced by 2 days/decade in 1951-2014 and by 3 days/decade in 1988-2014, behaving similarly in respect to its evolution since 1951 and its sensitivity to temperature to other species’ phenological spring phases. The evolution however was not linear; by conducting a split moving-window dissimilarity analysis (SMWDA) we were able to detect the “break-period” 1987-1989 which coincides with a breakpoint that has been identified in the phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We observed distinct spatial patterns with apple bloom advancing from southwest to northeast and, most interestingly, a longitudinal gradient in the trend of apple bloom onset revealed by a probabilistic principal components analysis (PPCA). In the period of 1951-2014, plants located in the east displayed a much stronger trend (‑16.53 days on average) than those in the western part of the country (‑6.74 days on average). This pattern seems to be linked to patterns in temperature which is highly correlated to apple bloom onset (best one predictor model: mean temperature March to May, R² = 0.82, ‑6 days/°C): the coldest regions exhibit the strongest warming trends and the greatest advances in apple bloom onset.
year | journal | country | edition | language |
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2018-01-01 | Climatologie |