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RESEARCH PRODUCT

Évolution retrospective du risque gélif hivernal en climat tempéré suite au réchauffement climatique

subject

description

An abrupt warming shift of the surface temperature around 1987/1988 has been documented for the western part ofEurope. The arising of two consecutive surface temperature climates offers opportunity to assess the warming impactsover the Bourgogne Franche-Comté area. Few studies focus on the winter warming effects on vegetation and crops. Recentstudies suggest however a paradoxical increase of frost damage in a warming climate. Based on the combination of aMeteo-France climate dataset with a winter frost stress model calibrated for pea, we assessed the winter frost damageevolution along from 1958-2015. Even if frost stress is decreasing at a whole after the temperature shift, subtle and oppositetrends of the number and intensity of frost events are showed. The signifi cant increase on the frost stress events partiallysupports the paradox of climate warming. The large frost stress intensity decrease displays a more intuitive evolutionfollowing the warming. The plant acclimation mechanism with the structure of the climate hazards are keys components inthe assessment of winter warming impacts evolution. This work highlights the breeding and crop strategy for winter pea foradaptation purpose in the current and projected context of climate change.