6533b7d8fe1ef96bd126afa3

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Assessing the Commodity Market Price and Terms of Trade Exposures of Macroeconomy in Emerging and Developing Countries

Kari HeimonenErnest Owusu BoakyeJuha Junttila

subject

makrotalousterms of tradeemerging and developing countrieskansainväliset markkinatDeveloping countrystructural vector autoregressionhyödykkeetMonetary economicsTerms of tradeCommodity marketCommodity priceshintakehitysComputingMilieux_GENERALtaloudelliset vaikutuksetStructural vector autoregressionkehittyvät markkinatEconomicsMacroGeneral Economics Econometrics and FinanceCommodity (Marxism)kansainvälinen kauppaFinance

description

This paper provides novel evidence on commodity market exposure, i.e., the impacts of commodity price and terms of trade fluctuations on macro performance amongst 46 emerging and developing countries (EMDCs) in Africa, Asia and the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region. We estimate the exposure of six macroeconomic variables to the commodity prices and terms of trade. Our results indicate that in overall terms, there is a strong and statistically significant long-run relationship between the vector of analyzed world trade prices and macro variables in all EMDCs. However, based on the short-term reactions, only about 10% of the macroeconomic variation amongst the EMDCs is due to commodity market-related exposures. Our results also indicate that the commodity market exposure is not unanimous across countries, amongst regions, or especially between measures of exposure. peerReviewed

yearjournalcountryeditionlanguage
2021-10-11
http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:jyu-202110215330