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RESEARCH PRODUCT

How Do Judgmental Overconfidence and Overoptimism Shape Innovative Activity?

Christian ZehnderHolger HerzDaniel Schunk

subject

UnternehmerEconomics and EconometricsVertrauenInnovation entrepreneurship overconfi dence experimentTestOverconfidencejel:D83Context (language use)jel:D232002 Economics and EconometricsSelbstevaluationentrepreneurshipExperimentECON Department of Economics10007 Department of EconomicsEconomicsddc:330C92OptimismusPositive economicsoverconfidenceInnovationjel:C92experimentEntrepreneurship330 Economicsinnovation entrepreneurship overconfidence experimentD832003 FinancePersönlichkeitspsychologieD23FinanceOverconfidence effect

description

Recent field evidence suggests a positive link between overconfidence and innovative activities. In this paper we argue that the connection between overconfidence and innovation is more complex than the previous literature suggests. In particular, we show theoretically and experimentally that different forms of overconfidence may have opposing effects on innovative activity. While overoptimism is positively associated with innovation, judgmental overconfidence is negatively linked to innovation. Our results indicate that future research is well advised to take into account that the relationship between innovation and overconfidence may crucially depend on what type of overconfidence is most prevalent in a particular context.

https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2212050