6533b7dcfe1ef96bd1272963
RESEARCH PRODUCT
Holes in the Dike: the global savings glut, U.S. house prices and the long shadow of banking deregulation
Mathias HoffmannIryna Stewensubject
G28media_common.quotation_subjectHouse pricesjel:F20Monetary economicsjel:F40credit constraintsjel:G21Deregulationjel:G28CREDIT CONSTRAINTSSTATE BANKING DEREGULATIONsavings glut10007 Department of Economics0502 economics and businessddc:330F32G10state banking regulations050207 economicsSAVINGS GLUTEmerging marketsmedia_common050208 finance05 social sciencesHouse prices savings glut global imbalances credit constraints state banking deregulationGlobal imbalancesjel:F32jel:G10330 EconomicsInterest rateShock (economics)Net capital ruleCapital (economics)interstate banking deregulationPortfolioG21house pricesBusinessGeneral Economics Econometrics and FinanceF40state banking deregulationglobal imbalancesF20description
We explore empirically how capital inflows into the US and financial deregulation within the United States interacted in driving the run-up (and subsequent decline) in US housing prices over the period 1990-2010. To obtain an ex ante measure of financial liberalization, we focus on the history of interstate-banking deregulation during the 1980s, i.e. prior to the large net capital inflows into the US from China and other emerging economies. Our results suggest a long shadow of deregulation: in states that opened their banking markets to out-of-state banks earlier, house prices were more sensitive to capital inflows. We provide evidence that global imbalances were a major positive funding shock for US wide banks: different from local banks, these banks held a geographically diversified portfolio of mortgages which allowed them to tap the global demand for safe assets by issuing private-label safe assets backed by the country-wide US housing market. This, in turn, allowed them to expand mortgage lending and lower interest rates, driving up housing prices.
year | journal | country | edition | language |
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2015-01-01 |