6533b7ddfe1ef96bd127552f
RESEARCH PRODUCT
Should Contact Bans Have Been Lifted More in Germany?
René GlawionConstantin WeiserBodo PlachterKlaus WäldeJean Roch Donsimonisubject
medicine.medical_specialty2019-20 coronavirus outbreakEconomics and EconometricsCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Geography Planning and Developmentforecast Germanyepidemic03 medical and health sciences0302 clinical medicine0502 economics and businessPandemicmedicine030212 general & internal medicineChromatin structure remodeling (RSC) complex050207 economicsExit strategybiologyI18SARS-CoV-2Public healthJel/E17pandemic05 social sciencesE17Jel/I18ArticlesEconomic benefitsEditor's ChoiceC63biology.proteinDemographic economicsJel/C63BusinessCovid-19description
Abstract Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of Covid-19 if RSC had been upheld after 20 April. We employ these findings and feed them into our theoretical model. We find that the peak of the number of sick individuals would have been reached already end of April. The number of sick individuals would have fallen below 1000 at the beginning of July. If restrictions had been lifted completely on April 20, the number of sick should have risen quickly again from around 27 April. A balance between economic and individual costs of RSC and public health objectives consists in lifting RSC for activities that have high economic benefits but low health costs. In the absence of large-scale representative testing of CoV-2 infections, these activities can most easily be identified if federal states of Germany adopted exit strategies that differ across states.
| year | journal | country | edition | language |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-07-03 | Cesifo Economic Studies |