6533b7defe1ef96bd1275e96

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Methodology for the estimation of the increase in time loss due to future increase in tropical cyclone intensity in Japan

Tomoya ShibayamaMiguel EstebanChristian Webersik

subject

VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Mathematics: 410::Applied mathematics: 413Atmospheric ScienceGlobal and Planetary ChangeDowntimeVDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Geosciences: 450::Meteorology: 453Severe weatherMeteorologybusiness.industryGlobal warmingVDP::Social science: 200::Urbanism and physical planning: 230::Spatial territorial planning: 238Climate changeStormComputingMethodologies_PATTERNRECOGNITIONEnvironmental scienceEconomic impact analysisTropical cyclonebusinessRisk management

description

Published version of an article from the journal: Climatic Change. The original publication is available at Spingerlink. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9725-9 The present paper develops a methodology for estimating the risks and consequences of possible future increases in tropical cyclone intensities that would allow policy makers to relatively quickly evaluate the cost of different mitigation strategies. The methodology simulates future tropical cyclones by modifying the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2007. It then uses a Monte Carlo Simulation to obtain the expected number of hours that a certain area can expect to be affected by winds of a given strength. The methodology outlined has a range of applications, and the present paper shows as an example the calculation of the expected cost of mitigation of the increased downtime for Japanese ports by 2085 for a variety of economic growth scenarios

yearjournalcountryeditionlanguage
2009-11-03
http://hdl.handle.net/11250/135302