Methodology for the estimation of the increase in time loss due to future increase in tropical cyclone intensity in Japan
Published version of an article from the journal: Climatic Change. The original publication is available at Spingerlink. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9725-9 The present paper develops a methodology for estimating the risks and consequences of possible future increases in tropical cyclone intensities that would allow policy makers to relatively quickly evaluate the cost of different mitigation strategies. The methodology simulates future tropical cyclones by modifying the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2007. It then uses a Monte Carlo Simulation to obtain the expected number of hours that a certain area can expect to be affected by winds of a giv…
The economic impact of future increase in tropical cyclones in Japan
Published version of an article from the journal:Natural Hazards. Also available from SpringerLink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9522-9 This article estimates the non-first-order economic loss in Japan due to a future increase in tropical cyclones. One possible effect of global warming could be the increase in intensity of tropical cyclones. Using historical storm tracks between the years 1978 and 2007 and altering their intensities due to this potential increase in their intensity, this paper calculates the future potential regional GDP loss in a certain area that is affected by tropical cyclones. Most of the literature is concerned with physical damage and the loss of lives due to…