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RESEARCH PRODUCT

Future Climate Forcings and Olive Yield in a Mediterranean Orchard

Goffredo La LoggiaDario PumoFrancesco ViolaLeonardo NotoDomenico Caracciolo

subject

Mediterranean climatelcsh:TD201-500lcsh:Hydraulic engineeringcrop modelSettore ICAR/02 - Costruzioni Idrauliche E Marittime E IdrologiaGeography Planning and DevelopmentClimate changeVegetationAquatic ScienceBiochemistrystochastic downscalingclimate changelcsh:Water supply for domestic and industrial purposeslcsh:TC1-978EvapotranspirationClimatologyEnvironmental scienceClimate modelOrchardolive yieldWater contentWater Science and TechnologyDownscaling

description

The olive tree is one of the most characteristic rainfed trees in the Mediterranean region. Observed and forecasted climate modifications in this region, such as the CO2 concentration and temperature increase and the net radiation, rainfall and wind speed decrease, will likely alter vegetation water stress and modify productivity. In order to simulate how climatic change could alter soil moisture dynamic, biomass growth and fruit productivity, a water-driven crop model has been used in this study. The numerical model, previously calibrated on an olive orchard located in Sicily (Italy) with a satisfactory reproduction of historical olive yield data, has been forced with future climate scenarios generated using a stochastic weather generator and a downscaling procedure of an ensemble of climate model outputs. The stochastic downscaling is carried out using simulations of some General Circulation Models adopted in the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (4AR) for future scenarios. The outcomes state that climatic forcings driving potential evapotranspiration compensate for each other, resulting in a slight increase of this water demand flux

yearjournalcountryeditionlanguage
2014-05-30Water
https://doi.org/10.3390/w6061562