6533b823fe1ef96bd127ed0c

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Modelling and assessing public health policies to counteract Italian measles outbreaks

Giovanni Scire'

subject

system dynamicInfodemicPublic healthmedicine.medical_specialtyCommunicable diseaseApplied MathematicsPublic healthVaccinationSir modelMeasles outbreakOutbreakSettore ING-IND/35 - Ingegneria Economico-GestionaleSettore MED/42 - Igiene Generale E Applicatamedicine.diseaseMeaslesComputer Science ApplicationsVaccinationKey factorsGeographySettore SECS-P/07 - Economia AziendaleMeasleModeling and SimulationEnvironmental healthmedicine

description

This study aims to understand, through explanatory research, the key factors that led to the 2017 measles outbreak in Italy, the causes of the low level of immunisation and the causes of possible cyclical phenomena of measles epidemics. This topic's comprehension has required a holistic approach, merging epidemiological aspects, socioeconomic aspects (including the evolution of mistrust in vaccinations, infodemy and fake news) and health law constraints. A specific SIR System Dynamics (SD) model was built to reproduce the relevant cause-and-effect relationships between social interactions, the public institutions behaviour and the measles outbreaks. SD results permit the assessment of the health policies to counteract the measles outbreaks. Findings, limits and further research recommendations are briefly reported in the conclusions.

yearjournalcountryeditionlanguage
2021-11-03International Journal of Simulation and Process Modelling
https://doi.org/10.1504/ijspm.2021.10042481