6533b829fe1ef96bd12898f7

RESEARCH PRODUCT

How costly are debt crises?

Davide FurceriAleksandra Zdzienicka

subject

Western hemisphereEconomics and Econometricsmedia_common.quotation_subjectjel:E60Settore SECS-P/02 Politica EconomicaMonetary economicsEconomic models;Sovereign debt;Gross domestic product;output losses debt crises sovereign defaults debt crisis currency crises crisis episodes currency crisisCurrency crisisGross domestic productjel:G10Identification (information)Output Losses; Debt Crises; Sovereign Defaults.CrisesCurrencyDebtEconomicsGeneral Earth and Planetary SciencesDefaultEconomic modelEndogeneityFinanceGeneral Environmental ScienceDebt crisismedia_common

description

The aim of this paper is to assess the short- and medium-term impact of debt crises on GDP. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1970 to 2008, the paper shows that debt crises produce significant and long-lasting output losses, reducing output by about 10 percent after eight years. The results also suggest that debt crises tend to be more detrimental than banking and currency crises. The significance of the results is robust to different specifications, identification and endogeneity checks, and datasets.

https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30953/1/MPRA_paper_30953.pdf