The Rise in Inequality after Pandemics: Can Fiscal Support Play a Mitigating Role?

Abstract Major epidemics of the last two decades (SARS, H1N1, MERS, Ebola, and Zika) have been followed by increases in inequality [Furceri et al. (2020), COVID Economics, 12, 138–157]. In this article, we show that the extent of fiscal consolidation in the years following the onset of these pandemics has played an important role in determining the extent of the increase in inequality. Episodes marked by extreme austerity—measured using either the government’s fiscal balance, health expenditures, or redistribution—have been associated with an increase in the Gini measure of inequality three times as large as in episodes where fiscal policy has been more supportive. We survey the evidence th…

Business cycle volatility and country size: evidence for a sample of OECD countries

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between business cycle volatility and country size using quarterly data for a sample of OECD countries over 1960-2000. The results suggest very strongly that the relationship between country size and business cycle volatility is negative and statistically significant. This finding is very robust, suggesting that country size does matter, at least for the severity of cyclical fluctuations.

Unemployment and Labor Market Issues in Algeria

The aim of this paper is to analyze unemployment and labor market developments in Algeria and assess the factors that may hamper employment creation. The results of the paper suggest that the relative low output-employment elasticities and rigid labor market are the main factors behind the still high level of unemployment, particularly among the youth. Simulation analyses, based on the results on the relation between labor market institutions and unemployment, show that improvement in labor market conditions in Algeria would be key in reducing unemployment both in the short- and medium-term.

Does Labor Respond to Cyclical Fluctuations? The Case of Italy

The aim of this paper is to analyse whether labour mobility is likely to act as a sufficient adjustment mechanism in the face of asymmetric shocks in Italy. In particular, the paper examines if the interregional migration responds, among other factors, also to the GDP's regional cyclical component. The results show that interregional labour mobility appears to respond adequately to current and past cyclical fluctuations.

Is an Increase of the Fiscal Budget at EMU level Desirable?

The birth of the European Monetary Union (EMU) has determined the creation of a common currency, the Euro, but unlike other monetary unions, the EMU does not have a central fiscal authority. The role of fiscal policy is left to the responsibility of the governments of the EMU member States. The new architecture modifies the assignment of the instruments to the objectives, especially those of stabilization. The loss of the sovereignty of monetary policy and exchange rate control by the individual member states has determined the inability to use two important instruments of insurance against the risks of shocks. Moreover, the Treaty of Maastricht and the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) could…

The Macroeconomy After Tariffs

AbstractWhat does the macroeconomy look like in the aftermath of tariff changes? This study estimates impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries from 1963 to 2014. Tariff increases are associated with persistent, economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity, as well as higher unemployment and inequality, real exchange rate appreciation, and insignificant changes to the trade balance. Output and productivity impacts are magnified when tariffs rise during expansions and when they are imposed by more advanced or smaller (as opposed to developing or larger) economies; effects are asymmetric, …

Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models

The paper assesses, using seven structural models used heavily by policymaking institutions, the effectiveness of temporary fiscal stimulus. Models can, more easily than empirical studies, account for differences between fiscal instruments, for differences between structural characteristics of the economy, and for monetary-fiscal policy interactions. Findings are: (i) There is substantial agreement across models on the sizes of fiscal multipliers. (ii) The sizes of spending and targeted transfers multipliers are large. (iii) Fiscal policy is most effective if it has some persistence and if monetary policy accommodates it. (iv) The perception of permanent fiscal stimulus leads to significant…

Long-Run Growth and Volatility: Which Source Really Matters

The aim of the article is to analyse the relationship between long-run growth and business cycle volatility. In particular, the main purpose of this article is to identify which source of volatility is most detrimental to growth. Using cross-country data from 1970 to 2000, and several indicators of volatility (such as inflation, exchange rate, government expenditure, output and investment volatility) this article shows that although, all these measures of volatility are remarkably harmful for growth, business cycle investment volatility is the main source that hampers long-run growth. This relation is robust to different measures of business cycle, and to different sub-samples of countries.

EMU enlargement, stabilization costs and insurance mechanisms

This paper considers the determinants of the macroeconomic costs of joining EMU for the new EU Member Sates, and compares them with those of the EMU members. Specifically, we investigate the business cycle correlation between the candidate's economy and that of the euro area as a whole, and the ability of insurance mechanisms and fiscal policies to smooth income fluctuations. The results suggest that EMU membership would not be costly for some countries (Cyprus, Hungary and Malta) but for other countries it could have relevant costs, at least in the short-run. For some of these countries, business cycles are not yet well synchronized with the euro area's business cycle, and risk-sharing mec…

The real effect of financial crises in the European transition economies1

The aim of this work is to assess the impact of financial crises on output for 11 European transition economies (CEECs). The results suggest that financial crises have a significant and permanent effect, lowering long-term output by about 17 percent. The effect is more important in smaller countries, with relative higher dependence on external financing, and in which the banking sector noticed more important financial disequilibria. We also found that fiscal policy measures have been the most efficient tools in dealing with the crises, while the role of monetary policy instruments has been rather blinded. Exchange rate resulted to be more a propagator than a crises absorber, while the IMF c…

The Impact of Government Spending on the Private Sector: Crowding-out versus Crowding-in Effects

The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of government spending on the private sector, assessing the existence of crowding-out versus crowding-in effects. Using a panel of 145 countries from 1960 to 2007, the results suggest that government spending produces important crowding-out effects, by negatively affecting both private consumption and investment. Moreover, while the effects do not seem to depend on the different phases of economic cycle, they vary considerably among regions. The results are economically and statistically significant, and robust to several econometric techniques.

Medium-Term Determinants of International Investment Positions

The Consequences of Banking Crises for Public Debt

The aim of this paper is to assess the consequences of banking crises for public debt. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1980 to 2006, the paper shows that banking crises are associated with a significant and long-lasting increase in government debt. The effect is a function of the severity of the crisis. In particular, for severe crises, comparable to the most recent one in terms of output losses, banking crises are followed by a medium-term increase of about 37 percentage points in the government gross debt-to-GDP ratio. Measuring the increase in debt in this manner seems more appropriate than some of the measures used in the literature that have provided off-quoted and very…

Will COVID-19 Have Long-Lasting Effects on Inequality? Evidence from Past Pandemics

This paper provides evidence on the impact of major epidemics from the past two decades on income distribution. The pandemics in our sample, even though much smaller in scale than COVID-19, have led to increases in the Gini coefficient, raised the income share of higher-income deciles, and lowered the employment-to-population ratio for those with basic education compared to those with higher education. We provide some evidence that the distributional consequences from the current pandemic may be larger than those flowing from the historical pandemics in our sample, and larger than those following typical recessions and financial crises.The online version contains supplementary material avai…

Zipf’s Law and World Income Distribution

The aim of this article is to demonstrate regularity in the world income distribution. In particular, using GDP per capita data for the period 1980 to 2004, the article shows that the world income distribution follows the well know 'rank-size rule'.

The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Output

Regional inequalities and economic downturns

The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of economic downturns on regional inequalities. From a theoretical point of view regional inequalities may change in the aftermath of economic downturns if different regions have a different degree of resilience to a common shock or/and a different speed of adjustment. To test for this hypothesis we estimate the dynamic response of regional inequalities to economic downturns, controlling and interacting for country’s structural and policy variables associated to regional inequalities. The set of such variables includes, among others, the share of rural population, demographic changes, educational disparities, production diversification, the l…

Regional inequalities, economic crises and policies: an international panel analysis

This paper examines the effects of economic downturns on regional inequalities. In a sample of 25 OECD countries for 1990–2014 period, we show that economic downturns are associated with a significant and long-lasting reduction in regional inequalities. Expansionary fiscal policy as well as higher share of the European development (cohesion) funds facilitate the response of lagging regions to negative nation-wide shocks, contributing to further stimulate the reduction in regional disparities. Additional evidence suggests that the effect of downturns tends to be larger in economies with a higher initial level of regional disparities in unemployment and human capital endowment.

The effects of monetary policy shocks on inequality

Abstract This paper provides new evidence of the effect of conventional monetary policy shocks on income inequality. We construct a measure of unanticipated changes in policy rates—changes in short-term interest rates that are orthogonal to unexpected changes in growth and inflation news—for a panel of 32 advanced and emerging market countries over the period 1990–2013. Our main finding is that contractionary monetary policy shocks increase income inequality, on average. The effect is asymmetric—tightening of policy raises inequality more than easing lowers it—and depends on the state of the business cycle. We find some evidence that the effect increases with the share of labor income and i…

Fiscal Policy Discretion, Private Spending, and Crisis Episodes

In this paper, we assess the impact of fiscal policy discretion on economic activity in the short and medium-term. Using a panel of 132 countries from 1960 to 2008, we find that fiscal policy discretion provides a net stimulus to the economy in the short-run and crowding-in effects are amplified once crisis episodes are controlled for– in particular, banking crises - giving a great scope for fiscal policy stimulus packages. However, crowding-out effects take over in the long-run – especially, in the case of debt crises -, in line with the concerns about long-term debt sustainability.

Assessing Long-Term Fiscal Developments: A New Approach

We use a new approach to assess long-term fiscal developments. By analyzing the time-varying behaviour of the two components of government spending and revenue - responsiveness and persistence - we are able to infer about the sources of fiscal behaviour. Drawing on quarterly data we estimate recursively these components within a system of government revenue and spending equations using a Three-Stage Least Square method. In this way we track fiscal developments, i.e. possible fiscal deteriorations and/or improvements for eight European Union countries plus the US. Results suggest that positions have not significantly changed for Finland, France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom and the US,…

Business Cycles Synchronization in the EMU

This article asks whether the business cycles of the EU countries have become more or less synchronized after the introduction of the euro. Our findings show that all countries in our EU sample are better synchronized with the EMU-wide economy in the post-EMU period than they were before the euro. We also show that this increase in synchronization is present in all components of aggregate demand, as well as two supply-side variables, but it is more pronounced in the trade components (imports and, particularly, exports). It is also shown that the increase in trade within the EMU area is at least partly responsible for the increase in cyclical synchronization.

MEDIUM-TERM DETERMINANTS OF INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITIONS: THE ROLE OF STRUCTURAL POLICIES

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the medium-term determinants of international investment positions for a large sample of advanced and emerging economies. In addition to the usually considered drivers of foreign assets and liabilities, the analysis focuses on the role of structural policy indicators. Using cross-section and panel regression techniques the results suggest that structural policy settings are important medium-term drivers of capital flows, having a relatively large impact on gross and net foreign capital positions and on their composition. In particular, the results suggest that certain kinds of structural policy reform could help to narrow global imbalances,…

Can policies affect employment intensity of growth? A cross country analysis

How Do Institutions Affect Structural Unemployment in Times of Crises?

This paper examines the effect of economic crises on structural unemployment using an Autoregressive Distributed Lags model and accounting for the role of institutional settings on an unbalanced panel of 30 OECD economies from 1960 to 2006. We found that downturns have, on average, a significant positive impact on the level of structural unemployment rate. The maximum impact varies with the severity of the downturn. Institutions (such as employment protection legislation, average replacement ratio and product market regulation) influence both the extent of the initial shock and the adjustment pattern in the aftermath of an economic downturn.

The effect of financial crises on potential output: New empirical evidence from OECD countries

Abstract The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of financial crises on potential output. For this purpose a univariate autoregressive growth equation is estimated on an unbalanced panel of OECD countries over the period 1960–2008. Our results suggest that the occurrence of a financial crisis negatively and permanently affects potential output. In particular, financial crises are estimated to lower potential output by around 1.5–2.4% on average, with most of the impact coming from the effect on capital. The magnitude of the effect increases with the severity of the crisis. These results are robust to the use of an alternative measure of potential output, changes in the methodology and…

The macroeconomic effects of electricity-sector privatization

Abstract We examine the macroeconomic effects of privatizing the ownership structure of the electricity market, using a novel indicator of privatization which covers 90 advanced, emerging market, and developing economies, since 1974. Privatization reforms, on average, improve outcomes in the provision of electricity and have positive macroeconomic effects: output and employment increase in the years following electricity-sector privatization reforms. Reforms are also associated also with an increase in income inequality, but the effects are small, on average. These impacts vary according to the business cycle, quality of institutions, and a country's development status, with macroeconomic a…

Will the Economic Impact of COVID-19 Persist? Prognosis from 21st Century Pandemics

COVID-19 has had a disruptive economic impact in 2020, but how long its impact will persist remains unclear. We offer a prognosis based on an analysis of the effects of five previous major epidemics in this century. We find that these pandemics led to significant and persistent reductions in disposable income, along with increases in unemployment, income inequality and public debt-to-GDP ratios. Energy use and CO2 emissions dropped, but mostly because of the persistent decline in the level of economic activity rather than structural changes in the energy sector. Applying our empirical estimates to project the impact of COVID-19, we foresee significant scarring in economic performance and in…

Does Government Spending Crowd Out Private Consumption and Investment?

To counteract the impact of the financial crisis, governments have imple-mented significant fiscal stimulus packages that involve a combination of tax cuts and a boost in social and public infrastructure spending. While, before the turmoil, there was broad consensus that monetary policy should be the primary tool of stabilisation policy, and fiscal policy should play lit-tle role beyond allowing automatic stabilisers to operate, during the crisis almost all major countries adopted discretionary fiscal policy measures. In the debate on the fiscal policy response to the economic downturn, the effectiveness of fiscal policy to support the economy has, there-fore, regained importance and renewe…

Banking Crises and Output Losses in Developing Countries: The Role of Structural and Policy Variables

The aim of this work is to assess the short and medium term impact of banking crises on developing economies. Using an unbalanced panel of 159 countries from 1970 to 2006, the paper shows that banking crises produce significant output losses, both in the short and in the medium term. The effect depends on structural and policy variables. Output losses are larger for relatively more wealthy economies, characterized by a higher level of financial deepening and larger current account imbalances. Flexible exchange rates, fiscal and monetary policy have been found to be efficient tools to attenuate the effect of the crises. Among banking intervention policies, liquidity support resulted to be th…

Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union

This paper analyses sectoral business cycle synchronization in an enlarged European Union using annual data for the period 1980-2005. In particular, we try to identify which sector for each country is driving the aggregate output business cycle synchronization. Overall, the sectors that provide the most relevant contribution are Industry, Building and Construction, and Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry. In contrast, the Services sector, the largest one in terms of valued added share, shows a relative low business cycle synchronization and volatility, implying that it contributes only marginally to the aggregate output business cycle synchronization.

Moving closer? Comparing regional adjustments to shocks in EMU and the United States

Highlights • Interstate migration is the main adjustment channel to labor demand shocks for the US. • EMU countries adjust through changes in labor force participation and unemployment. • Price flexibility is more important as a shock absorber for EMU. • Risk-sharing mechanisms have been more effective in the US than in the EMU. • The strength of these channels has increased for EMU ad declined for the United States.

The Impact of Government Spending on the Private Sector: Crowding-out versus Crowding-in Effects

Summary We contribute to the empirical literature on the effect of government spending on economic activity, by assessing the impact of changes in government spending-GDP ratio on (the short-term growth rates of) private consumption and investment. We do this by analysing a panel sample of 145 countries from 1960 to 2007. The results of our paper suggest that government spending produces important crowding-out effects, by negatively affecting both private consumption and investment. The result is broadly robust to both country and time effects, and different econometric specifications. In addition, we show that the effect of government consumption on private consumption and investment does …

Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops

Form Currency Unions to a World Currency: A Possibility?

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the main macroeconomic determinants of benefits and costs by undertaking processes of monetary integration and to investigate the possibility that currency unions could lead to the creation of a global currency in the future. In particular, we will consider two main determinants of costs and benefits predicted by the theory of Optimum Currency Areas: (i) the business-cycle correlation between the candidate’s economy and that of the currency zone as a whole, and (ii) the candidate economy’s inflation gain. Using this methodology, the results of the paper provide empirical evidence of the existence of several optimal currency areas in the world. Moreove…

Is Government Expenditure Volatility Harmful for Growth? A Cross-Country Study

The aim of the paper is to analyse the relationship between government expenditure volatility and long-run growth. Using cross-country panel data from 1970 to 2000, the paper finds that countries with higher government expenditure business-cycle volatility have lower growth, even after controlling for other country-specific growth correlates such as investment, government expenditure, human capital, population growth and output volatility. This relation is robust to different measures of business cycles. Moreover, considering different subsamples, the paper finds that while government volatility significantly affects long-run growth for developing countries, it has a small effect for OECD c…

The Effects of Social Spending on Economic Activity: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD countries

The aim of this paper is to assess the short term effects of social spending on economic activity. Using a panel of OECD countries from 1980 to 2005, the results show that social spending has expansionary effects on GDP. In particular, we find that an increase of 1% of social spending increases GDP by about 0.1 percentage point, which, given the share of social spending to GDP, corresponds to a multiplier of about 0.6. The effect is similar to the one of total government spending, and it is larger in periods of severe downturns. Among spending subcategories, social spending in Health and Unemployment benefits have the greatest effects. Social spending also positively affects private consump…

Fiscal multipliers and job-protection regulation

Abstract We study, both theoretically and empirically, how labor market regulation affects fiscal multipliers. We focus on the stringency of employment protection legislation, a prominent source of rigidity in European labor markets. First, using a small-open economy model that features labor-market search-and-matching frictions and nominal rigidities, we show that an increase in government spending has larger output effects when firing costs are lower. The importance of layoff costs for the public spending multiplier is larger in the absence of exchange rate adjustment and in a recession. Second, we confirm these findings empirically using a panel of 26 advanced countries over the period 1…

Heterogeneous gains from countercyclical fiscal policy: new evidence from international industry-level data

Abstract Empirical evidence to date suggests a positive relationship between fiscal policy countercyclicality and growth. But do all industries gain equally from countercyclical fiscal policy? What are the channels through which countercyclical fiscal policy affects industry-level growth? We answer these questions by applying a difference-in-difference approach to an unbalanced panel of 22 manufacturing industries for 55 countries—including both advanced and developing economies—during the period 1970–2014. Among the various industry characteristics guided by different theoretical channels, we find that the credit constraints channel identifies the best transmission mechanism through which …

The Dynamic Effect of Social and Political Instability on Output: The Role of Reforms

Inflation anchoring and growth: The role of credit constraints

Abstract Can inflation anchoring foster growth? To answer this question, we use panel data on sectoral growth for 22 manufacturing industries from 39 advanced and emerging market economies over 1990–2014 and employ a difference-in-differences strategy based on the theoretical prediction that higher inflation uncertainty particularly depresses investment in industries that are more credit constrained. Industries characterized by high external financial dependence, liquidity needs, and R&D intensity, and low asset tangibility, tend to grow faster in countries with well-anchored inflation expectations. The results, based on an IV approach—using indicators of monetary policy transparency and ce…

Exchange Rate Volatility and FDI in the EMU Neighborhood Countries

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the role of exchange rate volatility in explaining the evolution of FDI inflows in the EMU neighbourhood countries. Examining the question in the framework of an empirical model that considers the major macroeconomic determinants of FDI, the results of the paper suggest that the effect of exchange rate volatility on FDI crucially depends on a country’s degree of openness. In fact, while exchange rate volatility has positive or null effect for relatively closed economies, it has a negative impact on economies with a high level of openness. This result is particularly relevant for transition economies (Emerging Europe and CIS) and is robust to the use o…

How costly are debt crises?

The aim of this paper is to assess the short- and medium-term impact of debt crises on GDP. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1970 to 2008, the paper shows that debt crises produce significant and long-lasting output losses, reducing output by about 10 percent after eight years. The results also suggest that debt crises tend to be more detrimental than banking and currency crises. The significance of the results is robust to different specifications, identification and endogeneity checks, and datasets.

How Costly are Debt Crises?

The aim of this paper is to assess the short- and medium-term impact of debt crises on GDP. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1970 to 2008, the paper shows that debt crises produce significant and long-lasting output losses, reducing output by about 10 percent after eight years. The results also suggest that debt crises tend to be more detrimental than banking and currency crises. The significance of the results is robust to different specifications, identification and endogeneity checks, and datasets.

Banking crises, labor reforms, and unemployment

Abstract Using a sample of 97 countries spanning the period 1980–2008, we estimate that banking crises have, on average, a large negative impact on unemployment. This effect, however, largely depends on the flexibility of labor market institutions: while in countries with more flexible labor markets the impact of banking crises is sharper but short-lived, in countries with more rigid labor markets the effect is initially more subdued but highly persistent. These effects are even larger for youth unemployment in the short term, and long-term unemployment in the medium term. Conversely, large upfront, or gradual but significant, comprehensive market reforms have a positive impact on unemploym…

Aggregate uncertainty and sectoral productivity growth: The role of credit constraints

Abstract We show that an increase in aggregate uncertainty—measured by stock market volatility—reduces productivity growth more in industries that depend heavily on external finance. The mechanism at play is that during periods of high uncertainty, firms that are credit constrained switch the composition of investment by reducing productivity-enhancing investment—such as on ICT capital—which is more subject to liquidity risks (Aghion et al., 2010). The effect is larger during recessions, when financing constraints are more likely to be binding, than during expansions. Our statistical method—a difference-in-difference approach using productivity growth of 25 industries from 18 advanced econo…

The Real Effect of Financial Crises in the European Transition Economies

Working Paper GATE 2009-20; International audience; The aim of this work is to assess the impact of financial crises on output for 11 European transition economies (CEECs). The results suggest that financial crises have a significant and permanent effect, lowering long-term output by about 17 percent. The effect is more important in smaller countries, with relative higher dependence on external financing, and in which the banking sector noticed more important financial disequilibria. We also found that fiscal policy measures have been the most efficient tools in dealing with the crises, while the role of monetary policy instruments has been rather blinded. Exchange rate resulted to be more …

The Effect of Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility on Real Macroeconomic Performance in the CEE Countries

Working Paper Gate 09-34; International audience; This paper analyzes the relation between nominal exchange rate volatility and several macroeconomic variables, namely real per output growth, excess credit, foreign direct investment (FDI) and the current account balance, in the Central and Eastern European EU Member States. Using panel estimations for the period between 1995 and 2008, we find that lower exchange rate volatility is associated with higher growth, higher stocks of FDI, higher current account deficits, and higher excess credit. The results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.

China Spillovers: New Evidence from Time-Varying Estimates

The recent “rebalancing” of China’s economy has raised concerns that the country’s growth slowdown may have large global implications. This note looks at this issue by analyzing the effects of China’s growth shocks on the output of other countries and how these effects have changed over time. Estimates indicate that the magnitude of China’s spillovers has steadily increased during the last two decades, but remains yet limited. Spillovers are larger in neighboring (Asian) countries and in emerging markets and developing economies. Trade linkages remain main transmission channels. In addition, a negative shock in China has (marginal) positive effects for net commodity importers wh…

The Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms: The Role of Macroeconomic Conditions and Policies

The paper estimates the dynamic macroeconomic effects of labor and product market reforms on output, employment and productivity, and explores how these vary with prevailing macroeconomic conditions and policies. We apply a local projection method to a new dataset of major country- and country-sector-level reform shocks in various areas of labor market institutions and product market regulation covering 26 advanced economies over the past four decades. Product market reforms are found to raise productivity and output, but gains materialize only slowly. The impact of labor market reforms is primarily on employment, but it varies across types of reforms and depends on overall business cycle c…

Tax Design in the OECD: A Test of the Hines-Summers Hypothesis

This paper investigates the effects of economic size and trade openness on tax design in the OECD. Using data for 30 OECD countries over the 1965–2007 period, we test the recently proposed Hines-Summers [2009] Hypothesis, according to which the smaller the size and the greater the openness of the economy, the more it will rely on expenditure taxes and the less on income taxes. Our findings show that the Hines-Summers Hypothesis can claim broad, statistically significant, and robust empirical support in the OECD data sets we examined.

How best to measure discretionary fiscal policy? Assessing its impact on private spending

We develop a novel empirical approach to assess the effect of discretionary fiscal policy on private spending consisting of three stages: 1) extract the discretionary component of fiscal policy by estimating a fiscal policy rule; 2) use the residuals of the first-stage regression to investigate the existence of crowding-in and/or crowding-out effects both in the short and the medium term; and 3) condition the response of private spending on a set of country characteristics. We find that an expansion in discretionary fiscal policy boosts growth in the short term, but is detrimental in the medium term. In addition, the empirical findings suggest that the effect of discretionary fiscal policy …

A reply to "banking crises, labor reforms, and unemployment: A comment"

Aleksynka (2015) points to some important methodological flaws in the labor market indicators data used in Bernal-Verdugo, Furceri and Guillaume (2013) [BFG]. This paper revisits the empirical findings presented in BFG, and shows that the results and conclusions are little affected by these methodological flaws. In particular, we find that: (i) while in countries with more flexible labor markets the impact of banking crises is sharper but short-lived, in countries with more rigid labor markets the effect is initially more subdued but highly persistent; (ii) comprehensive labor market reforms have a positive impact on unemployment, albeit only in the medium term.

Government consumption volatility and the size of nations

This paper analyzes the relation between government consumption volatility and country size. Using an unbalanced sample of 160 countries from 1960 to 2010, it finds that smaller countries have more volatile government consumption. Moreover, while this relation is more negative for more volatile economies, there is also evidence that smaller countries have more volatile government consumption even controlling for the level of volatility in the economy.

The Consequences of Banking Crises for Public Debt

The aim of this paper is to assess the consequences of banking crises for public debt. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1980 to 2006, the paper shows that banking crises are associated with a significant and longlasting increase in government debt. The effect is a function of the severity of the crisis. In particular, for severe crises, comparable to the most recent one in terms of output losses, banking crises are followed by a medium-term increase of about 37 percentage points in the government gross debt-to-GDP ratio. In addition, the debt ratio increased more in countries with higher initial gross debt-to-GDP ratio, with a higher share of foreign debt, and with a lower qu…

Are the New EU Countries Ready for the EURO? A Comparison of Costs and Benefits

This paper examines the main macroeconomic determinants of costs and benefits of adopting the euro for the new EU member countries, and compares them to those of the older members. We show that these cost and benefit factors exhibit substantial variability across the countries considered. Our findings suggest that, in terms of price stability, the position of the new members is overall better than some EMU countries, such as Portugal and Greece. At the same time, we identify countries (such as Slovenia, Cyprus, and Hungary) whose business cycle is already well synchronized with EMU's, but also countries (such as Latvia and Estonia) with lower synchronization, and countries (such as Romania,…

Financial Globalization, Fiscal Policies and the Distribution of Income

This paper provides evidence that financial globalization—liberalization of the capital account—makes income distribution more uneven by raising the share of income that goes to the richest income deciles. We also offer evidence that changes in domestic fiscal policies in the aftermath of financial globalization are one channel through which these distributional effects could occur. Specifically, we show that episodes of capital account liberalization are followed by greater fiscal consolidation and reduced fiscal redistribution, both of which lead to increased inequality.

Sovereign Credit Ratings and Financial Markets Linkages: Application to European Data

We use EU sovereign bond yield and CDS spreads daily data to carry out an event study analysis on the reaction of government yield spreads before and after announcements from rating agencies (Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch). Our results show significant responses of government bond yield spreads to changes in rating notations and outlook, particularly in the case of negative announcements. Announcements are not anticipated at 1–2 months horizon but there is bi-directional causality between ratings and spreads within 1–2 weeks; spillover effects especially among EMU countries and from lower rated countries to higher rated countries; and persistence effects for recently downgraded countrie…

Assessing long-term fiscal developments : a new approach

We use a new approach to assess long-term fiscal developments. By analyzing the time-varying behaviour of the two components of government spending and revenue – responsiveness and persistence–, a feature not captured by automatic stabilisers, we are able to infer about the sources of fiscal deterioration (improvement). Drawing on quarterly data, we estimate recursively these components within a system of government revenue and spending equations using a Three-Stage Least Square method for eight European Union countries plus the US. The results suggest that significant changes in the fiscal stance (including those related to the current crisis) are reflected in the estimates of persistence …

Financial Integration and Fiscal Policy

The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of financial integration on fiscal policy. Using an unbalanced panel of 31 OECD countries from 1970 to 2009, the paper shows that financial integration has significant disciplinary effects by reducing fiscal deficits and (discretionary) spending volatility. In addition, we find that financial integration affects the composition of government debt and enhances risk-sharing by increasing the share of foreign debt to the total. The results are robust to both de jure and de facto measures of financial integration, different measures of budget balance, and different estimation strategies.

Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries☆

Abstract The empirical evidence on the growth effects of import tariffs is sparse in the literature, notwithstanding strong views held by the public and politicians. Using an annual panel of macroeconomic data for 151 countries over 1963–2014, we find that tariff increases are associated with an economically and statistically sizeable and persistent decline in output growth. Thus, fears that the ongoing trade war may be costly for the world economy in terms of foregone output growth are justified.

EMU Enlargement, Stabilization Cost and Automatic Stabilizers

We use a new approach to assess long-term fiscal developments. By analyzing the time-varying behaviour of the two components of government spendingandrevenue–responsivenessandpersistence–, a feature not captured by automatic stabilisers, we are able to infer about the sources of fiscal deterioration (improvement). Drawing on quarterly data, we estimate recursively these components within a system of government revenue and spending equations using a Three-Stage Least Squaremethod for eight EuropeanUnion countries plus the US. The results suggest that significant changes in the fiscal stance (including those related to the current crisis) are reflected in the estimates of persistence and resp…

Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes

Background Vaccination against the coronavirus disease (SARS-CoV-2) is understood to be the key way out of the COVID-19 pandemic. Limited evidence exists on the determinants of vaccine rollouts and their health effects at the country level. Objective Examine the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and their effects on health outcomes. Methods Ordinary least squares regressions with standard errors clustered at the country level for Cross-section and Panel daily data of vaccinations and various health outcomes (new COVID-19 cases, fatalities, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions) for an unbalanced sample of about 200 countries during the period 16 December 2020 to 20 June 2021. Results…

The distributional effects of capital account liberalization

Abstract Episodes of account liberalization increase the Gini measure of inequality, based on panel data estimates for 149 countries from 1970 to 2010. These episodes are also associated with a persistent increase in the share of income going to the top. We investigate three channels through which these impacts could occur. First, the impact of liberalization on inequality is stronger where credit markets lack depth and financial inclusion is low; positive impacts of liberalization on poverty rates also vanish when financial inclusion is low. Second, the impact on inequality is also stronger when liberalization is followed by a financial crisis. Third, liberalization seems to alter the rela…

Are climate change policies politically costly?

Are policies designed to avert climate change (Climate Change Policies, or CCPs) politically costly? Using data on governmental popular support and the OECD's Environmental Stringency Index covering 30 countries between 2001 and 2015, our results show that CCPs are not necessarily politically costly: policy design matters. First, in contrast to non-market-based CCPs (such as emission limits), only market-based CCPs (such as emission taxes) entail political costs for the government. Second, the effects are only present when CCPs are adopted during periods of high oil prices, prior to elections, or in countries depending strongly on non-green (dirty) energy sources. Third, CCPs are only polit…

Discretionary Government Consumption, Private Domestic Demand, and Crisis Episodes

This paper analyzes the dynamic impact of discretionary government consumption purchases on private demand. Using a panel of 132 countries from 1960 to 2008, we find that while discretionary changes in government consumption lead to crowding-in effects in the short run, crowding-out effects take over in the medium run. In addition, we also find that both short-term crowding-in and mediumterm crowding out effects are amplified once we control for periods of crisis.

The Euro Area Crisis; Need for a Supranational Fiscal Risk Sharing Mechanism?

The aim of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of risk sharing mechanisms in the euro area and whether a supranational fiscal risk sharing mechanism could insure countries against very severe downturns. Using an unbalanced panel of 15 euro area countries over the period 1979–2010, the results of the paper show that: (i) the effectiveness of risk sharing mechanisms in the euro area is significantly lower than in existing federations (such as the U.S. and Germany) and (ii) it falls sharply in severe downturns just when it is needed most; (iii) a supranational fiscal stabilization mechanism, financed by a relatively small contribution, would be able to fully insure euro area countries …

Labor and product market reforms and external Imbalances: Evidence from advanced economies

We explore the impact of major labor and product market reforms on current account dynamics using a new “narrative” database of major changes in employment protection for regular workers and product market regulation for non-manufacturing industries covering 26 advanced economies over the past four decades. Our main finding is that product market deregulation is associated with a weakening of the current account, while labor market deregulation is associated with an improvement. These effects are transitory and driven by both saving and investment responses. Labor and product market reforms both have a more positive impact on the current account balance when implemented under weak macroecon…

Fiscal Policy Responsiveness, Persistence and Discretion

This paper analyzes the different characteristics of fiscal policy using a two-step estimation procedure. First, we decompose both government spending and government revenue into three components: responsiveness, persistence and discretion. Second, we assess the determinants of these characteristics. Using data from 132 countries, our results show that fiscal policy is more persistent than responsive to economic conditions, which implies that the authorities may have less leeway in the short-run notably to curb spending behavior. In addition, countries characterized by greater fiscal persistence have less discretion and responsiveness. Finally, macroeconomic, institutional and geographic va…

Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models

Does the EMU Need a Fiscal Transfer Mechanism?

Summary: The aim of this paper is to investigate how the birth of a central fiscal authority or the creation of a fiscal transfer mechanism could improve the action of fiscal policy in terms of stabilization in the EMU. In particular, the paper examines the theoretical reasons to support this conclusion and provides empirical evidence that shows how the EMU is not able to face asymmetric and symmetric idiosyncratic shocks. Zusammenfassung: Die zentrale Frage des Aufsatzes lautet: Ob und wie kann eine zentrale Fiskalbehorde oder ein fiskalischer Transfermechanismus die fiskalpolitische Stabilisierung in der EWU verbessern? Dazu werden theoretische Argumente und empirische Evidenz prasentiert…

Average Tax Rate Cyclicality in OECD Countries: A Test of Three Fiscal Policy Theories

This paper investigates the cyclical properties of the average effective tax rate in 26 OECD countries over 1965-2003 in order to test the validity of three theories of fiscal policy: (i) the standard Keynesian theory which recommends that tax policy should be counter-cyclical, (ii) the Tax Smoothing hypothesis, which implies that changes in GDP should be uncorrelated with tax rates, and (iii) the positive theory of Battaglini and Coate (2008) which predicts that the average tax rate should be negatively correlated with GDP. Our main finding is that the correlations of tax rates with cyclical GDP are generally quite small and statistically indistinguishable from zero. This finding is quite …

Uncertainty and cross-border banking flows

Abstract While global uncertainty—measured by the VIX—has proven to be a robust global “push” factor of international capital flows, there has been no systematic study assessing the role of uncertainty in driving bilateral capital flows. This paper examines the effects of higher country-specific uncertainty on cross-border banking flows using data from the Bank for International Settlements Locational Banking Statistics. The bilateral structure of this data allows disentangling supply factors from demand factors, thereby helping identify the effect of higher uncertainty on cross-border banking flows from other confounding factors. The results of this analysis suggest that: (i) uncertainty i…

The Macroeconomy after Tariffs

Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth

This paper analyses the effects in terms of size and volatility of government revenue and spending on growth in OECD and EU countries. The results of the paper suggest that both variables are detrimental to growth. In particular, looking more closely at the effect of each component of government revenue and spending, the results point out that i) indirect taxes (size and volatility); ii) social contributions (size and volatility); iii) government consumption (size and volatility); iv) subsidies (size); and v) government investment (volatility) have a sizeable, negative and statistically significant effect on growth. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

International Fiscal-Financial Spillovers:the Effect of Fiscal Shocks on Cross-Border Bank Lending

This paper sheds new light on the degree of international fiscal-financial spillovers by investigating the effect of domestic fiscal policies on cross-border bank lending. By estimating the dynamic response of U.S. cross-border bank lending towards the 45 recipient countries to exogenous domestic fiscal shocks (both measured by spending and revenue) between 1990Q1 and 2012Q4, we find that expansionary domestic fiscal shocks lead to a statistically significant increase in cross-border bank lending. The magnitude of the effect is also economically significant: the effect of 1 percent of GDP increase (decrease) in spending (revenue) is comparable to an exogenous decline in the federal funds ra…

Keeping Public Debt Sustainable in an Equitable Way

The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed over 5 million lives thus far. This grim figure would have been higher still without the strong and timely fiscal support provided by governments around the globe, including support for health sector and the development and deployment of vaccines. The IMF has noted that “in 2020, fiscal policy proved its worth. The increasing public debt in 2020 was fully justified by the need to respond to COVID 19 and its economic, social, and financial consequences” (Gaspar, 2021). How to keep debt sustainable is becoming a policy imperative, made all the more challenging by the lingering effects of the pandemic, particularly on low-income groups. In this article we summ…

The Impact of Government Spending on the Private Sector: Crowding-Out versus Crowding-In Effects

The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of government spending on the private sector, assessing the existence of crowding-out versus crowding-in effects. Using a panel of 145 countries from 1960 to 2007, the results suggest that government spending produces important crowding-out effects, by negatively affecting both private consumption and investment. Moreover, while the effects do not seem to depend on the different phases of economic cycle, they vary considerably among regions. The results are economically and statistically significant, and robust to several econometric techniques.

Stabilization effects of social spending: Empirical evidence from a panel of OECD countries

Abstract The aim of this paper is to assess the ability of social spending to smooth output shocks and to provide stabilization. The results show that overall social spending is able to smooth about 15 percent of a shock to GDP. Among its sub-categories, social spending devoted to Old Age, Health and Unemployment are those that contribute more to provide smoothing. Moreover, the stabilization effects of social spending are significantly larger in those countries where the size of social spending is higher, and in countries in which social spending is less volatile. The empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.

Crypto market responses to digital asset policies

We construct daily databases of crypto bans and policy statements concerning central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to estimate their effect on crypto trading volumes for an unbalanced panel of 116 countries from November 2016 to December 2021. We find that trading volume falls by up to 55% in the week after the announcement of a ban, and by up to 25% after a CBDC-supportive speech by senior central bank officials. For the strictest bans, this reduction persists over the subsequent quarter, driven by a reduction in trading by institutional investors. The results suggest that crypto market participants pay significant attention to government policy on digital assets.(c) 2022 Elsevier B.V. A…

Global Food Prices and Domestic Inflation: Some Cross-Country Evidence

We study the impact of global food price shocks on domestic inflation in a large group of countries. For advanced economies, a 10% increase in global food inflation raises domestic inflation by about 0.5 percentage point after a year; however, the impact has declined over time and become less persistent. The global food price shocks of the 2000s had a much bigger impact on domestic inflation in emerging and developing economies than in advanced economies. This could reflect the smaller share of food in the consumption baskets in advanced economies. We also provide evidence that inflation expectations are more anchored in advanced than in emerging economies, which could also explain the smal…

The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Financial Globalization: Evidence from Macro and Sectoral Data

We take a fresh look at the aggregate and distributional effects of policies to liberalize international capital flows—financial globalization. Both country- and industry-level results suggest that such policies have led on average to limited output gains while contributing to significant increases in inequality—that is, they pose an equity–efficiency trade-off. Behind this average lies considerable heterogeneity in effects depending on country characteristics. Liberalization increases output in countries with high financial depth and those that avoid financial crises, while distributional effects are more pronounced in countries with low financial depth and inclusion and where libera…

The Effects of Downturns on Labour Force Participation

This paper uses an impulse-response function approach to assess the magnitude and persistence of the effects of downturns on labour force participation for a sample of 30 countries over the period 1960-2008. Past severe recessions appear to have had a significant and persistent impact on participation, while moderate downturns did not. The aggregate participation rate effect of severe downturns peaked on average at about 1½ to 2½ percentage points five to eight years after the cyclical peak, and was still significant after almost a decade. Youths and older workers account for the bulk of this effect. Institutional and policy settings are found to be an important factor having shaped the res…

The macroeconomic effects of public investment: Evidence from advanced economies

This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting ou…

Shipping Costs and Inflation

The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted global supply chains, leading to shipment delays and soaring shipping costs. We study the impact of global shipping costs-measured by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI)-on domestic prices for a large panel of countries during the period 1992-2021. We find that spikes in the BDI are followed by sizable and statistically signif-icant increases in import prices, PPI, headline, and core inflation, as well as inflation expec-tations. The impact is similar in magnitude but more persistent than for shocks to global oil and food prices. The effects are more muted in countries where imports make up a smaller share of domestic consumption, and those with inflation targetin…

Structural and Cyclical Factors behind Current- Account Balances

Global external imbalances widened persistently over the last several years and have narrowed abruptly over the course of the financial crisis. Understanding the extent to which structural or cyclical factors may have driven these patterns is important to assess the likely evolution of global imbalances going forward, as well as the potential adjustment that can be achieved through changes in policy. This paper assesses the link between structural and cyclical factors and current-account balances using a panel of 94 countries from 1973 to 2008. We find that the medium-term evolution of global external imbalances can be related in large part to structural factors including cross-country diff…

The Regional Effects of Public Spending on Active Labor Market Policies: Evidence from Advanced Economies

This paper examines the regional effects of public spending on Active Labor Market polices (ALMPs). Using an unbalanced sample of 308 regions belonging to 29 OECD Economies for the period 1995-2011, we show that discretionary increases in public spending on active labor market policies at the national level have statistically significant short- and medium-term effect in reducing regional unemployment rate, while raising regional output. These effects tend to be larger during periods of low GDP growth, and when complemented by a larger share of cohesion fund expenditures.

Business cycle volatility and country zize :evidence for a sample of OECD countries

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between business cycle volatility and country size using quarterly data for a sample of OECD countries over 1960-2000. The results suggest very strongly that the relationship between country size and business cycle volatility is negative and statistically significant. This finding is very robust, suggesting that country size does matter, at least for the severity of cyclical fluctuations.

Banking Crises, Labor Market Reforms and Unemployment

Risk-sharing and Institutional Architecture of Stabilization Policies in the EMU: Methodological Aspects and Empirical Evidence

Will COVID-19 Have Long-Lasting Effects on Inequality? Evidence from Past Pandemics

This paper provides evidence on the impact of major epidemics from the past two decades on income distribution. The pandemics in our sample, even though much smaller in scale than COVID-19, have led to increases in the Gini coefficient, raised the income share of higher-income deciles, and lowered the employment-to-population ratio for those with basic education compared to those with higher education. We provide some evidence that the distributional consequences from the current pandemic may be larger than those flowing from the historical pandemics in our sample, and larger than those following typical recessions and financial crises.

Une lecture de la crise à la lumière des crises passées.

19 * Les auteurs sont economiste et economiste principale au Departement des Affaires Economiques de l’OCDE. Ils remercient K. SchmidtHebbel, J. Coppel, B. Cournede, R. Ahrend, V. Koen, J.L. Schneider, L. Willard et beaucoup d’autres collegues, en particulier les responsables pays, pour les commentaires et les discussions fructueuses qu’ils ont eus avec eux. Les auteurs remercient aussi trois referes anonymes pour leur relecture approfondie et leurs suggestions. Ce document n’engage pas l’OCDE ni les pays membres. ECONOMIE

Job protection deregulation in good and bad times

Abstract This paper explores the short-term employment effect of deregulating job protection for regular workers and how it varies with prevailing business cycle conditions. We apply the local projection method to a newly constructed dataset of major regular job protection reforms covering 26 advanced economies over the past four decades. The analysis relies on country-sector-level data, using as identifying assumption the fact that stringent dismissal regulations are more binding in sectors that are characterized by a higher ‘natural’ propensity to make regular adjustments to the workforce. We find that the response of sectoral employment to deregulation depends crucially on the state of t…

Banking Crises and Short and Medium Term Output Losses in Emerging and Developing Countries: The Role of Structural and Policy Variables

The aim of this paper is to assess the dynamic impact of banking crises on output for a panel of developing economies. Using an unbalanced panel of 159 countries from 1970 to 2006, the paper shows that banking crises produce significant output losses. Output losses are larger for relatively richer economies, characterized by a higher level of financial deepening and larger current account imbalances. Flexible exchange rates, fiscal and monetary policy, and liquidity support policies have been found to attenuate the effect of the crises. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

The impact of weather on COVID-19 pandemic.

AbstractRising temperature levels during spring and summer are often argued to enable lifting of strict containment measures even in the absence of herd immunity. Despite broad scholarly interest in the relationship between weather and coronavirus spread, previous studies come to very mixed results. To contribute to this puzzle, the paper examines the impact of weather on the COVID-19 pandemic using a unique granular dataset of over 1.2 million daily observations covering over 3700 counties in nine countries for all seasons of 2020. Our results show that temperature and wind speed have a robust negative effect on virus spread after controlling for a range of potential confounding factors. T…

Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages. Application to European data

Is the Middle-East an Optimum Currency Area? A Comparison of Costs and Benefits

This paper examines the macroeconomic costs and benefits of adopting a common currency for 13 Middle Eastern countries. Economic theory suggests that the main benefit is enhanced price stability, while the main cost is higher business-cycle volatility if the member country’s output is not sufficiently correlated with the area’s, as a whole. Using data from 1980–2005, the paper finds that the estimated cost and benefit measures exhibit substantial variability across the countries and are sometimes positively correlated. Moreover, focusing on the results for the last decade, it seems that many Middle Eastern countries (such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Unite…

Asymmetric effects of monetary policy shocks across US states

This paper provides new empirical evidence of the asymmetric effects of monetary policy shocks across regions. Using a measure of unanticipated changes in the Fed's policy rates over the period 1969Q3–2008Q4 and a local projection method extended to account for spatial effects, we find that monetary policy tightening leads to a long-lasting decrease in states' real personal income, with asymmetric effects across states that are amplified by spatial spillovers. The paper then investigates the role played by several transmission channels finding larger contractionary effects of monetary policy tightening in states with higher manufacturing share, smaller firms, smaller banks and higher house …

Can fiscal decentralization alleviate government consumption volatility?

We analyse how fiscal decentralization affects the volatility of government consumption extending the existing literature that mainly deals with the effects of the former on government size. Using data for 97 developed and developing countries from 1971 to 2010, we find that a higher degree of fiscal decentralization leads to lower government consumption volatility. This result holds for the sub-sample of advanced economies, while it is not confirmed for those less-developed. This mechanism seems to work mainly through a lower volatility of the non-discretionary spending, which typically belongs to the central government’s policy. We also confirm existing findings according to which country…

Beta and sigma convergence: A Mathematical Relation of Causality

This paper examines and compares in detail the concepts of β and σ-convergence. It provides a mathematical relation of causality between these two concepts, showing that a necessary condition for the existence of σ-convergence is the existence of β-convergence

Oil prices and inflation dynamics: Evidence from advanced and developing economies

Abstract We study the impact of fluctuations in global oil prices on domestic inflation using an unbalanced panel of 72 advanced and developing economies over the period from 1970 to 2015. We find that a 10% increase in global oil inflation increases, on average, domestic inflation by about 0.4 percentage points on impact, with the effect vanishing after two years and being similar between advanced and developing economies. We also find that the effect is asymmetric, with positive oil price shocks having a larger effect than negative ones. The impact of oil price shocks, however, has declined over time due in large part to a more credible monetary policy and less reliance on energy imports.…

Does the Maastricht Treaty Matter for Real Convergence?

Fiscal Convergence, Business Cycle Volatility and Growth

This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal convergence on business cycle volatility and growth. Using a panel 21 OECD countries (including 11 EMU countries) and 40 years of data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have smoother business cycles. That is, fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP) is systematically associated with smoother business cycles. We also find evidence that reduced business cycle volatility through higher fiscal convergence stimulates growth. Our empirical results are economically and statistically significant and robust.

Banking Crises and Short and Medium Term Output Losses in Developing Countries: The Role of Structural and Policy Variables

The aim of this work is to assess the short and medium term impact of banking crises on developing economies. Using an unbalanced panel of 159 countries from 1970 to 2006, the paper shows that banking crises produce significant output losses, both in the short and in the medium term. The effect depends on structural and policy variables. Output losses are larger for relatively more wealthy economies, characterized by a higher level of financial deepening and larger current account imbalances. Flexible exchange rates, fiscal and monetary policy have been found to be efficient tools to attenuate the effect of the crises. Among banking intervention policies, liquidity support resulted to be th…

Policy uncertainty and foreign direct investment

While foreign direct investment (FDI) is known to be the most stable type of international capital flows, it may be particularly susceptible to heightened uncertainty because of its high fixed costs. We investigate the effect of domestic policy uncertainty on FDI inflows into 16 host countries using the OECD bilateral FDI panel data set and the economic policy uncertainty index from 1985 to 2013. The bilateral structure of the data enables us to disentangle pull factors of FDI from its push factors, thereby obtaining a cleaner causal identification of the higher domestic policy uncertainty effect. To alleviate remaining endogeneity concerns, we use the timing of “exogenous” elections as an …

Crises, Labor Market Policy, and Unemployment

Using a sample of 97 countries spanning the period 1980?2008, we estimate that financial crises have a large negative impact on unemployment in the short term, but that this effect rapidly disappears in the medium term in countries with flexible labor market institutions, whereas the impact of financial crises is less pronounced but more persistent in countries with more rigid labor market institutions. These effects are even larger for youth unemployment in the short term and long-term unemployment in the medium term. Conversely, large upfront, or gradual but significant, comprehensive labor market policies have a positive impact on unemployment, albeit only in the medium term.

Essays in Macroeconomics: Growth, Macroeconomic Volatility and Currency Unions

Essays in Macroeconomics: Growth, Macroeconomic Volatility and Currency Unions Essays in Macroeconomics: Growth, Macroeconomic Volatility and Currency Unions

Country size and business cycle volatility: Scale really matters

Abstract In a recent study Andrew Rose found that country size does not matter for several economic outcomes [Rose, A.K., 2006. Size really doesn't matter: In search of a national scale effect. J. Japanese Int. Economies 4, 482–507]. However, he did not consider the effect that country size may have on business-cycle volatility. To investigate the empirical relationship between business cycle volatility and country size, we use a panel data set that includes 167 countries from 1960 to 2000. The results suggest very strongly that the relationship between country size and business cycle volatility is negative and statistically significant. This implies that smaller countries are subject to mo…

Labor Market Flexibility and Unemployment: New Empirical Evidence of Static and Dynamic Effects

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between labor market flexibility and unemployment outcomes. Using a panel of 97 countries from 1985 to 2008, the results of the paper suggest that improvements in labor market flexibility have a statistically and significant negative impact on unemployment outcomes (over unemployment, youth unemployment, and long-term unemployment). Among the different labor market flexibility indicators analyzed, hiring and firing regulations and hiring costs are found to have the strongest effect.

The Real Effect of Financial Crises in the European Transition Economies

The aim of this work is to assess the impact of financial crises on output for 11 European transition economies (CEECs). The results suggest that financial crises have a significant and permanent effect, lowering long-term output by about 17 percent. The effect is more important in smaller countries, with relative higher dependence on external financing, and in which the banking sector noticed more important financial disequilibria. We also found that fiscal policy measures have been the most efficient tools in dealing with the crises, while the role of monetary policy instruments has been rather blinded. Exchange rate resulted to be more a propagator than a crises absorber, while the IMF c…

Regional Labor Market Adjustment in the United States: Trend and Cycle

We present new evidence on the evolution of labor mobility in the United States over the past four decades. Building on the seminal methodology by Blanchard and Katz (1992), combined with multiple sources of regional population and migration data, we show that interstate mobility in response to relative labor demand conditions is not as high as previously established and has been weakening since the early 1990s. In addition, we find that mobility is countercyclical: net migration across regions responds more strongly to spatial disparities in recessions than in normal times. While the declining trend in mobility has been driven by weaker out-migration from states experiencing negative relat…

The effect of episodes of large capital inflows on domestic credit

This paper analyses the effect of capital inflow surges on the evolution of domestic credit. Using a panel of developed and emerging economies from 1970 to 2007, it is shown that in the two years following the beginning of a capital inflow surge the credit-to-GDP ratio increases by about 2 percentage points. The effect is reversed in the medium-term with the credit-to-GDP ratio decreased by almost 4 percentage points seven years after the initial surge. The paper also finds that the effect is different depending on the type of flows characterising the episode (debt vs. portfolio equity vs. FDI), with large capital inflows that are debt-driven having the largest effect. The results of the pa…

Fiscal policy discretion, private spending and crises episodes

In this paper, we assess the impact of fiscal policy discretion on economic activity in the short and medium-term. Using a panel of 132 countries from 1960 to 2008, we find that fiscal policy discretion provides a net stimulus to the economy in the short-run and crowding-in effects are amplified once crisis episodes are controlled for– in particular, banking crises - giving a great scope for fiscal policy stimulus packages. However, crowding-out effects take over in the long-run – especially, in the case of debt crises -, in line with the concerns about long-term debt sustainability.

Replication data for: Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models

The paper subjects seven structural DSGE models, all used heavily by policymaking institutions, to discretionary fiscal stimulus shocks using seven different fiscal instruments, and compares the results to those of two prominent academic DSGE models. There is considerable agreement across models on both the absolute and relative sizes of different types of fiscal multipliers. The size of many multipliers is large, particularly for spending and targeted transfers. Fiscal policy is most effective if it has moderate persistence and if monetary policy is accommodative. Permanently higher spending or deficits imply significantly lower initial multipliers. (JEL E12, E13, E52, E62)