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RESEARCH PRODUCT

Isolating the climate change impacts on air pollution-related-pathologies over Europe – A modelling approach on cases and costs

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Air pollution has important implications on human health and associated external costs to society, and is closely related to climate change. This contribution tries to assess the impacts of present (1996–2015) and future (2071–2100 under RCP8.5) air pollution on several cardiovascular and respiratory pathologies and to estimate the difference in the costs associated to those health impacts on European population. For that, air quality data from the WRF-Chem regional chemistry/climate modelling system is used, together with some epidemiological information from the European Commission. The methodology considered relies on the EVA exposure-response functions and economic valuations (Brandt et al., 2013a; 2013b). Several hypothesis have been established, in order to strictly isolate the effects of climate change on air pollution and health: constant present-day emission levels and population density in all Europe. In general, the number of cases for the pathologies considered will increase in the future (chronic bronchitis, heart failure, lung cancer, premature deaths), increasing the overall cost associated from 173 billion €/year to over 204 billion €/year at the end of the present century. Premature deaths are the most important problem in the target area in terms of costs (158 billion € per year, increasing by 17 % in the future RCP8.5 2071–2100 projection) and cases (418 700 cases/year, increasing by 94 900 cases/year in the future). The most affected areas are European megacities, the Ruhr Valley and several cities at eastern Europe (e.g. Chisinau, Bucharest). For the RCP8.5 scenario, cases and costs will increase over southern and eastern Europe, while central and northern Europe could benefit by climate change variations (decreasing both cases and costs for the studied pathologies).