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RESEARCH PRODUCT

Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction

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description

Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-ocean temperatures, and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal variability and externally forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere-ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end-user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis. Fil: Merryfield, William J.. Canadian Centre For Climate Modelling And Analysis; Canadá Fil: Baehr, Johanna. Universitat Hamburg; Alemania Fil: Batté, Lauriane. Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques; Francia Fil: Becker, Emily J.. No especifíca; Fil: Butler, Amy H.. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos Fil: Coelho, Caio A.S.. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil Fil: Danabasoglu, Gokhan. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados Unidos Fil: Dirmeyer, Paul A.. No especifíca; Fil: Doblasreyes, Francisco. No especifíca; Fil: Domeisen, Daniela I.V.. No especifíca; Fil: Ferranti, Laura. No especifíca; Fil: Ilynia, Tatiana. No especifíca; Fil: Kumar, Arun. No especifíca; Fil: Müller, Wolfgang A.. No especifíca; Fil: Rixen, Michel. World Meteorological Organization; Estados Unidos Fil: Robertson, Andrew W.. International Research Institute For Climate And Society; Estados Unidos Fil: Smith, Doug M.. No especifíca; Fil: Takaya, Yuhei. Japan Meteorological Agency; Japón Fil: Tuma, Matthias. World Meteorological Organization; Estados Unidos Fil: Vitart, Frederic. No especifíca; Fil: White, Christopher J.. University of Strathclyde; Reino Unido Fil: Alvarez, Mariano Sebastián. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina Fil: Ardilouze, Constantin. No especifíca; Fil: Attard, Hannah. No especifíca; Fil: Baggett, Cory. State University of Colorado - Fort Collins; Estados Unidos Fil: Balmaseda, Magdalena A.. No especifíca; Fil: Beraki, Asmerom F.. University Of Pretoria; Sudáfrica Fil: Bhattacharjee, Partha S.. National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration; Estados Unidos Fil: Bilbao, Roberto. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; España Fil: De Andrade, Felipe M.. University of Reading; Reino Unido Fil: DeFlorio, Michael J.. No especifíca; Fil: Díaz, Leandro Baltasar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina Fil: Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar. The Abdus Salam. International Centre for Theoretical Physics; Italia. The Abdus Salam; Italia Fil: Fragkoulidis, Georgios. Johannes Gutenberg Universitat Mainz; Alemania Fil: Grainger, Sam. No especifíca; Fil: Green, Benjamin W.. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos Fil: Hell, Momme C.. No especifíca; Fil: Infanti, Johnna M.. National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration; Estados Unidos Fil: Isensee, Katharina. No especifíca; Fil: Kataoka, Takahito. No especifíca; Fil: Kirtman, Ben P.. No especifíca; Fil: Klingaman, Nicholas P.. University of Reading; Reino Unido Fil: Lee, June Yi. Pusan National University; Corea del Sur Fil: Mayer, Kirsten. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos Fil: McKay, Roseanna. Monash University; Australia Fil: Mecking, Jennifer V.. University of Southampton; Reino Unido Fil: Miller, Douglas E.. University of Illinois. Urbana - Champaign; Estados Unidos Fil: Neddermann, Nele. No especifíca; Fil: Ng, Ching Ho Justin. University of Princeton; Estados Unidos Fil: Ossó, Albert. University of Graz; Austria Fil: Pankatz, Klaus. Max Planck Institute For Meteorology; Estados Unidos Fil: Peatman, Simon. No especifíca; Fil: Pegion, Kathy. George Mason University; Estados Unidos Fil: Perlwitz, Judith. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos Fil: Recalde Coronel, G. Cristina. Escuela Superior Politecnica del Litoral ; Ecuador Fil: Reintges, Annika. Geomar-Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel; Alemania Fil: Renkl, Christoph. Dalhousie University Halifax; Canadá Fil: Solaraju-Murali, Balakrishnan. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; España Fil: Spring, Aaron. No especifíca; Fil: Stan, Cristiana. George Mason University; Estados Unidos Fil: Sun, Y. Qiang. University of Princeton; Estados Unidos Fil: Tozer, Carly R.. No especifíca; Fil: Vigaud, Nicolas. No especifíca; Fil: Woolnough, Steven. University of Reading; Reino Unido Fil: Yeager, Stephen. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados Unidos