Eksponentiaalisen tasoituksen sovellus alkoholikuolleisuuden ennustamiseksi

6533b82cfe1ef96bd128eebd

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Eksponentiaalisen tasoituksen sovellus alkoholikuolleisuuden ennustamiseksi

subject

kuolleisuus eksponentiaalinen tasoitus ennusteet Poisson-jakauma alkoholi

description

Eksponentiaalisen tasoituksen menetelmillä voidaan ennustaa tulevia havaintoja. Yksinkertaisen eksponentiaalisen tasoituksen menetelmällä ennustetaan tulevien havaintojen tasoa, kun taas Holtin lokaalin lineaarisen trendin menetelmä mahdollistaa myös aikasarjan trendin ennustamisen. Näiden menetelmien tarvitsemat tasoitusparametrit saatiin uskottavuusfunktioita optimoimalla. Esiteltyjä menetelmiä sovellettiin vertailemalla suomalaisten miesten ja naisten alkoholikuolleisuutta eri 5-vuotisluokissa vuosina 1969-2016. Havaintojen oletettiin tässä olevan Poisson-jakautuneita, joten tasoitusparametrit saatiin optimoimalla Poisson-jakauman uskottavuusfunktiota. Nämä optimoimalla saadut tasoitusparametrit olivat usein huomattavasti kirjallisuuden suosittelemia arvoja suurempia. Kokonaisuutena suomalaisten alkoholikuolleisuus on laskussa sekä miehissä että naisissa. Tämä ei kuitenkaan päde jokaisessa sukupuolittain jaotellussa ikäluokassa. Alkoholikuolleisuus tasaantuu ja kääntyy jopa nousuun eläkeiän kynnyksellä molemmissa sukupuolissa. Vuosien 2012-2016 alkoholikuolleisuudelle laskettiin ennusteet Holtin lokaalisen lineaarisen trendin menetelmällä. Kun näitä alkoholikuolleisuuden ennusteita verrattiin kyseisinä vuosina toteutuneisiin arvoihin, niin ennusteiden havaittiin vastaavan varsin hyvin toteutuneita arvoja.

year	journal	country	edition	language
2018-01-01

http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:jyu-201805112528

PEPhysical Sciences and Engineering
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