6533b82dfe1ef96bd1290a29
RESEARCH PRODUCT
Pricing sovereign contingent convertible debt
Andrea ConsiglioMichele TumminelloStavros A. ZeniosAndrea ConsiglioMichele TumminelloStavros A. Zeniossubject
Credit default swapmedia_common.quotation_subjectMonetary economicsregime switchingFOS: Economics and businesssovereign debtSettore SECS-S/06 -Metodi Mat. dell'Economia e d. Scienze Attuariali e Finanz.Sovereignty0502 economics and business050207 economicsSovereign debtConvertible bondmedia_commonContingent bond050208 finance05 social sciencesRegime switchingPaymentcredit default swapDebt restructuringdebt restructuringBusinessPricing of Securities (q-fin.PR)General Economics Econometrics and FinanceQuantitative Finance - Pricing of SecuritiesFinancedescription
We develop a pricing model for Sovereign Contingent Convertible bonds (S-CoCo) with payment standstills triggered by a sovereign's Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread. We model CDS spread regime switching, which is prevalent during crises, as a hidden Markov process, coupled with a mean-reverting stochastic process of spread levels under fixed regimes, in order to obtain S-CoCo prices through simulation. The paper uses the pricing model in a Longstaff-Schwartz American option pricing framework to compute future state contingent S-CoCo prices for risk management. Dual trigger pricing is also discussed using the idiosyncratic CDS spread for the sovereign debt together with a broad market index. Numerical results are reported using S-CoCo designs for Greece, Italy and Germany with both the pricing and contingent pricing models.
| year | journal | country | edition | language |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-01-01 |