6533b82ffe1ef96bd1295059

RESEARCH PRODUCT

A wavelet analysis of US fiscal sustainability

Iolanda Lo Cascio

subject

MacroeconomicsEconomics and EconometricsWavelet coherencemedia_common.quotation_subjecteducationDebt-to-GDP ratioPrimary deficitSettore SECS-P/05 - EconometriahumanitiesTerm (time)WaveletDebtSustainabilityEconomicsWavelet coherence Public debt sustainability Time–frequency decompositionFiscal sustainabilityhealth care economics and organizationsmedia_common

description

Abstract In this paper, we reassess the relationship between primary deficit and lagged debt to GDP ratio (Bohn, 1998), to test for US debt sustainability over the period 1795–2012. Our analysis is rooted in the wavelet domain enabling the detection of interesting patterns and otherwise hidden information. We find evidence of long term fiscal sustainability but only up until 1995 and also we show that governments tend to respond more vigorously to budget deficits when the level of debt is high rather than low.

yearjournalcountryeditionlanguage
2015-12-01
10.1016/j.econmod.2015.07.008http://hdl.handle.net/10447/150455