6533b82ffe1ef96bd1295352

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Spatio-Temporal Spread Pattern of COVID-19 in Italy

Giada AdelfioAntonino AbbruzzoNicoletta D’angelo

subject

2019-20 coronavirus outbreakCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)General MathematicsSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)disease mappingCOVID-19Besag–York–Mollié modelGeographyspatio-temporal modelsComputer Science (miscellaneous)QA1-939Besag–York–Mollié model; COVID-19; disease mapping; spatio-temporal modelsBesag-York-Mollié modelSettore SECS-S/01 - StatisticaEngineering (miscellaneous)CartographyMathematics

description

This paper investigates the spatio-temporal spread pattern of COVID-19 in Italy, during the first wave of infections, from February to October 2020. Disease mappings of the virus infections by using the Besag–York–Mollié model and some spatio-temporal extensions are provided. This modeling framework, which includes a temporal component, allows the studying of the time evolution of the spread pattern among the 107 Italian provinces. The focus is on the effect of citizens’ mobility patterns, represented here by the three distinct phases of the Italian virus first wave, identified by the Italian government, also characterized by the lockdown period. Results show the effectiveness of the lockdown action and an inhomogeneous spatial trend that characterizes the virus spread during the first wave. Furthermore, the results suggest that the temporal evolution of each province’s cases is independent of the temporal evolution of the other ones, meaning that the contagions and temporal trend may be caused by some province-specific aspects rather than by the subjects’ spatial movements.

yearjournalcountryeditionlanguage
2021-10-01Mathematics
10.3390/math9192454https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/19/2454