6533b835fe1ef96bd129ed36

RESEARCH PRODUCT

How do normalization schemes affect net spillovers? A replication of the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) study

Andrea CipolliniSilvia MuzzioliFrancesco CaloiaFrancesco Caloia

subject

Normalization (statistics)Economics and EconometricsSocial connectedness020209 energySettore SECS-P/05 - Econometria02 engineering and technologyNormalization schemeconnectednessSpillover effect0502 economics and business0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineeringEconometrics050207 economicsMathematicsspillover normalization connectednessVector autoregression models05 social sciencesFinancial marketCovarianceCausalitySpilloverGeneral EnergynormalizationGeneralized forecast error variance decompositionCommodity price fluctuations Driving forces Nonparametric additive regression modelsVariance decomposition of forecast errorsBond marketStock marketSimulationNormalization schemes

description

Abstract This paper replicates the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) study on the connectedness of the commodity market and three other financial markets: the stock market, the bond market, and the FX market, based on the Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, GEFVD. We show that the net spillover indices (of directional connectedness), used to assess the net contribution of one market to overall risk in the system, are sensitive to the normalization scheme applied to the GEFVD. We show that, considering data generating processes characterized by different degrees of persistence and covariance, a scalar-based normalization of the Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition is preferable to the row normalization suggested by Diebold and Yilmaz since it yields net spillovers free of sign and ranking errors.

yearjournalcountryeditionlanguage
2019-10-01
10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104536http://hdl.handle.net/10447/388023