6533b837fe1ef96bd12a317f
RESEARCH PRODUCT
Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020
Sarah BlachNorah A TerraultFrank TackeIvane GamkrelidzeAntonio CraxiJunko TanakaImam WakedGregory J DoreZaigham AbbasAyat R AbdallahMaheeba AbdullaAlessio AghemoInka AhoUlus S AkarcaAbduljaleel M AlalwanMarianne Alanko BloméSaid A Al-busafiSoo AlemanAbdullah S AlghamdiWaleed K Al-hamoudiAbdulrahman A AljumahKhalid Al-naamaniYousif M Al SerkalIbrahim H AltraifAnil C AnandMotswedi AndersonMonique I AnderssonKostas AthanasakisOidov BaatarkhuuShokhista R BakievaZiv Ben-ariFernando BessoneMia J BiondiAbdul Rahman N BizriCarlos E Brandão-melloKrestina BrigidaKimberly A BrownBrown JrRobert SPhilip BruggmannMaurizia R BrunettoDana BusschotsMaria ButiMaia ButsashviliJoaquin CabezasChungman ChaeViktorija Chaloska IvanovaHenry Lik Yuen ChanHugo CheinquerKent Jason ChengMyeong-eun CheonCheng-hung ChienRong-nan ChienGourdas ChoudhuriPeer Brehm ChristensenWan-long ChuangVladimir ChulanovLaura E CisnerosBarbara CocoFernando A ContrerasMarkus CornbergMatthew E CrampJavier CrespoFuqiang CuiChris W CunninghamLucy Dagher AbouOlav DalgardDoan Y DaoVictor De LedinghenMoutaz F DerbalaKeshab DeubaKaran DhindsaSamsuridjal DjauziSylvia DrazilovaAnn-sofi DubergMohammed ElbadriManal H El-sayedGamal EsmatChris EstesSameera EzzatMartti A FärkkiläLaurent FerradiniMaria Lucia G FerrazPaulo R A FerreiraTajana Filipec KanizajRobert FlisiakSona FrankovaJames FungAmiran GamkrelidzeEdward GaneVirginia GarciaJavier García-samaniegoManik GemilyanJordan GenovLiliana S GheorghePierre M GholamAdrian GoldisMagnus GottfredssonRichard GrayJason GrebelyMichael GschwantlerBehzad HajarizadehSaeed S HamidWaseem HamoudiAngelos HatzakisMargaret E HellardSayed HimattHarald HoferIrena HrsticBela HunyadyPetr HusaAzra Husic-selimovicWasim S M JafriMartin JanickoNaveed JanjuaPeter JarcuskaJerzy JaroszewiczAnna JerkemanAgita JerumaJidong JiaJon G JonassonMartin KåbergKelly D E KaitaKulpash S KaliaskarovaJia-horng KaoOmor T KasymovAngela Kelly-hankuFaryal KhamisJawad KhamisAamir G KhanLekey KhanduIbtissam KhoudriKnut B KiellandDo Young KimNicolas KodjohLoreta A KondiliMel KrajdenHenrik Bygum KrarupPavol KristianJisoo A KwonMartin LaggingWim LalemanWai Cheung LaoDaniel LavanchyPablo LázaroJeffrey V. LazarusAlice U LeeMei-hsuan LeeMichael K K LiValentina LiakinaYoung-suk LimArthur LöveBoris LukšićShepherd Mufudzi MachekeraAbraham O MaluRui T MarinhoMojca MaticicHailemichael D MekonnenMaria Cássia Mendes-correaNahum Mendez-sanchezShahin MeratBerhane Redae MesheshaHåvard MidgardMike MillsRosmawati MohamedEllen MooneyhanChristophe MorenoDavid H MuljonoBeat MüllhauptErkin MusabaevGaëtan MuyldermansYvonne Ayerki NarteyMarcelo C M NaveiraFrancesco NegroAlexander V NersesovRichard NjouomRénovat NtagirabiriZuridin S NurmatovSolomon A ObekpaStephen OgucheSigurdur OlafssonJanus P OngOhene K Opare-semMauricio OrregoAnne L ØVrehusCalvin Q PanGeorge V PapatheodoridisMarkus Peck-radosavljevicMário G PessoaRichard O PhillipsNikolay PimenovDijana Plaseska-karanfilskaNishi N Prabdial-singPankaj PuriHuma QureshiAninda RahmanAlnoor RamjiDevin M Razavi-shearerKathryn Razavi-shearerEzequiel RidruejoCielo Y Ríos-hincapiéS M Shahriar RizviGeert K M M RobaeysLewis R. RobertsStuart K RobertsStephen D RyderShakhlo SadirovaUmar SaeedRifaat SafadiOlga SagalovaSanaa S SaidRiina SalupereFaisal M SanaiJuan F Sanchez-avilaVivek A SaraswatChristoph SarrazinGulya SarybayevaCarole Seguin-devauxAla I ShararaMahdi SheikhAbate B ShewayeWilliam SievertKaarlo SimojokiMarieta Y SimonovaMark W SonderupC Wendy SpearmanJan SperlRudolf E StauberCatherine A M StedmanTung-hung SuAnita SuleimanVana SypsaNatalia Tamayo AntabakSoek-siam TanTammo L TergastPrem H ThurairajahIeva TolmaneKrzysztof TomasiewiczMaia TsereteliBenjamin S C UzochukwuDavid A M C Van De VijverDaniela K Van SantenHans Van VlierbergheBerend Van WelzenThomas VanwolleghemPatricia Vélez-möllerFederico VillamilAdriana VinceYasir WaheedNina WeisVincent W-s WongCesar G YaghiKakharman YesmembetovAyman YosryMan-fung YuenEvy YunihastutiStefan ZeuzemEli ZuckermanHomie A Razavisubject
Viremia/epidemiologyGenotype DistributionHepatitis C/epidemiologyHepatologyEpidemiologyGastroenterologyInfant NewbornCOVID-19HepacivirusHepatitis ATodays Treatment ParadigmInfectionsHepatitis CFuture Disease BurdenSDG 3 - Good Health and Well-beingHCVfuture disease burden ; todays treatment paradigm ; genotype distribution ; epidemiology ; infectionsPrevalenceHumansHuman medicineViremiaPandemicsCOVID-19/epidemiologydescription
Background Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age =0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Findings Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0.7% (95% UI 0.7-0.9), corresponding to 56.8 million (95% UI 55.2-67.8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6.8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63.6 million (61.8-75.8) infections (0.9% [0.8-1.0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12.9 million (12.5-15.4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641 000 (623 000-765 000) patients initiated treatment. Interpretation At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56.8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination. Copyright (C) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
| year | journal | country | edition | language |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-01 | The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology |