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RESEARCH PRODUCT

Spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle

Ricardo M. SousaRicardo M. SousaShawkat HammoudehVitor CastroVitor CastroLuca Agnello

subject

Economics and EconometricEconomics and EconometricsAverage durationLabour economicsHousing booms and bustsCommoditySocial SciencesNormal timeBoomOil pricesHousing booms and bust0502 economics and businessEconomics050207 economicsDuration (project management)E51E52health care economics and organizationsE32Normal times050208 financeDuration analysi05 social sciencesSignificant differenceCiências Sociais::Economia e GestãoEnergy (all)General EnergyC41Duration analysis8. Economic growthOil price:Economia e Gestão [Ciências Sociais]

description

We assess the spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle using quarterly data for 20 net oil-exporting and -importing industrial countries, and employing continuous- and discrete-time duration models. We do not uncover a statistically significant difference in the average duration of booms and normal times in the housing markets of those net oil-importers and net oil-exporters. Similarly, the degree of exposure to commodity price fluctuations does not seem to significantly affect the housing market cycle. However, we find that housing booms are shorter when oil prices increase than housing busts when oil prices decrease. We also show that the net oil-importers are more vulnerable to protracted housing slump episodes than the net-oil exporters.

yearjournalcountryeditionlanguage
2017-01-01Energy Economics
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.11.004