Search results for "E32"
showing 10 items of 34 documents
Maximal subgroups of small index of finite almost simple groups
2022
We prove in this paper that a finite almost simple group $R$ with socle the non-abelian simple group $S$ possesses a conjugacy class of core-free maximal subgroups whose index coincides with the smallest index $\operatorname{l}(S)$ of a maximal group of $S$ or a conjugacy class of core-free maximal subgroups with a fixed index $v_S \leq {\operatorname{l}(S)^2}$, depending only on $S$. We show that the number of subgroups of the outer automorphism group of $S$ is bounded by $\log^3 {\operatorname{l}(S)}$ and $\operatorname{l}(S)^2 < |S|$.
The Stabilizing Role of Government Size
2007
This paper presents an analysis of how alternative models of the business cycle can replicate the stylized fact that large governments are associated with less volatile economies. Our analysis shows that adding nominal rigidities and costs of capital adjustment to an otherwise standard RBC model can generate a negative correlation between government size and the volatility of output. However, in the model, we find that the stabilizing effect is only due to a composition effect and it is not present when we look at the volatility of private output. Given that empirically we also observe a negative correlation between government size and the volatility of consumption, we modify the model by i…
A rational expectations model for simulation and policy evaluation of the Spanish economy
2010
This paper presents the model used for simulation purposes within the Spanish Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance. REMS (a Rational Expectations Model for the Spanish economy) is a small open economy dynamic general equilibrium model in the vein of the New-Neoclassical-Keynesian synthesis models, with a strongly micro-founded system of equations. In the long run REMS behaves in accordance with the neoclassical growth model. In the short run, it incorporates nominal, real and financial frictions. Real frictions include adjustment costs in consumption (via habits in consumption and rule-of-thumb households) and investment into physical capital. Due to financial frictions, there is no per…
Are business cycles asymmetric? Some European evidence
1997
Economic thought has ofien regal'ded business cycles as asymmetric. This papel' examines the existence of asymmetries over the business cycle in three European countries: France, Germany and the United Kingdom. To analyze this issue, industrial production in these countries from 1957 to 1994 is examined, and quarterly contractions and expansions in this variable are compared. The results obtained with both parametric and nonparametric methods allow the existence of asymmetries in these countries to be questioned. El pensamiento económico ha considerado frecuentemente que los ciclos económicos son de naturaleza asimétrica. Este trabajo examina la existencia de asimetrías en los ciclos económ…
Spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle
2017
We assess the spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle using quarterly data for 20 net oil-exporting and -importing industrial countries, and employing continuous- and discrete-time duration models. We do not uncover a statistically significant difference in the average duration of booms and normal times in the housing markets of those net oil-importers and net oil-exporters. Similarly, the degree of exposure to commodity price fluctuations does not seem to significantly affect the housing market cycle. However, we find that housing booms are shorter when oil prices increase than housing busts when oil prices decrease. We also show that the net oil-importers are more vulne…
ECONOMIC COMOVEMENTS IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
2005
This paper examines the existence of common movements in production, prices and interest rates in three countries: France, Germany and the United Kingdom. To analyse this issue, the usual approach of studying cross-correlations is extended. Though these European countries are closely linked to each other, the results obtained vary substantially over time, with the economic variables and in the countries under consideration. Este trabajo examina la existencia de movimientos comunes en la producción, en los precios y en los tipos de interés en tres países: Francia, Alemania y el Reino Unido. Para analizar este tema, se extiende el enfoque habitual del estudio de las correlaciones cruzadas. A …
Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads.
2010
Abstract In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads for real-time and revised data regarding employment and industrial production in the US. We evaluate models using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest that the best results come from using only a few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sector-specific high-yield credit spreads. In particular, for employment and at short-run horizons, there is a gain from using a principal components model fitted to high-yield credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks. Moreover, forecast results based on revised data …
Bubbles and Crowding-in of Capital via a Savings Glut
2017
This paper uncovers a mechanism by which bubbles crowd in capital investment. If capital formation is initially depressed by a binding credit constraint, a bubble triggers a savings glut. Higher returns in a new bubbly equilibrium attract additional savings, which are channeled to expand investment at the extensive margin, leading to permanently higher capital, output, and wages. We demonstrate that crowding-in through this channel is a robust phenomenon that occurs along the entire time path.
Household debt and labor market fluctuations
2011
Abstract The co-movements of labor productivity with output, total hours, vacancies and unemployment have changed since the mid 1980s. This paper offers an explanation for the sharp break in the fluctuations of labor market variables based on endogenous labor supply decisions following the mortgage market deregulation. We set up a search model with efficient bargaining and financial frictions, in which impatient borrowers can take an amount of credit that cannot exceed a proportion of the expected value of their real estate holdings. When borrowers' equity requirements are low, the impact of a positive technology shock on the marginal utility of consumption is strengthened, which in turn re…
Fiscal Rules and Macroeconomic Stability
2005
In this paper we analyze the impact of fiscal rules on the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a macroeconomic stabilizing instrument. First, we review the available evidence on the effects of fiscal policy to affect output in the short run and real interest rates and investment and growth in the long run, and we show how the use of fiscal rules has proved useful in restraining debt and deficits. Secondly, we discuss if debt consolidation rules trade off higher output instability in exchange for lower deficits, using three alternative representations of the intertemporal substitution mechanism in a SDGE framework. Our main conclusion is that both the impact of discretionary fiscal policy and …