6533b838fe1ef96bd12a3a56

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Risk Assessment of Toxicants to Pelagic Food-Webs: A Simulation Study

Hans-joachim PoethkeAlfred SeitzDetlef Oertel

subject

Risk analysisStochastic processEcologyLake ecosystemEconometricsEnvironmental sciencePelagic zoneVariance (accounting)Risk assessment

description

For a generalized mathematical model of the pelagic compartment of a lake ecosystem we show that a small variance in input parameters may result in a large variance in predicted biomasses. Since input parameters for this kind of models always show a great variance, we conclude that deterministic prediction of biomass-trajectories is rather useless and demonstrate how stochastic analysis of the model may lead to a helpful risk analysis.

yearjournalcountryeditionlanguage
1991-01-01
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-77020-3_24