6533b839fe1ef96bd12a6720
RESEARCH PRODUCT
Predicting cocaine consumption in Spain: A mathematical modelling approach
Emilio SánchezRafael-jacinto VillanuevaFrancisco-josé SantonjaMaría Milagros Del Saz Rubiosubject
Consumption (economics)education.field_of_studyHealth (social science)Mathematical modelPopulationMedicine (miscellaneous)Spanish populationEconometricsEpidemic diseaseSensitivity (control systems)MATEMATICA APLICADAeducationPsychologySocial psychologyHealth policydescription
In this article, we analyse the evolution of cocaine consumption in Spain and we predict consumption trends over the next few years. Additionally, we simulate some scenarios which aim to reduce cocaine consumption in the future (sensitivity analysis). Assuming cocaine dependency is a socially transmitted epidemic disease, this leads us to propose an epidemiological-type mathematical model to study consumption evolution. Model sensitivity analysis allows us to design strategies and analyse their effects on cocaine consumption. The model predicts that 3.5% of the Spanish population will be habitual cocaine consumers by 2015. The simulations carried out suggest that cocaine consumption prevention strategies are the best policy to reduce the habitual consumer population. In this article, we show that epidemiological-type mathematical models can be a useful tool in the analysis of the repercussion of health policy proposals in the short-time future. © 2011 Informa UK Ltd.
| year | journal | country | edition | language |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010-08-05 | Drugs: Education, Prevention and Policy |