6533b852fe1ef96bd12aae29
RESEARCH PRODUCT
Pricing and hedging GDP-linked bonds in incomplete markets
Stavros A. ZeniosStavros A. ZeniosStavros A. ZeniosAndrea Consigliosubject
Incomplete marketEconomics and EconometricsHistoryControl and OptimizationPolymers and PlasticsFinancial economicsContingent bonds; Debt restructuring;Asset pricing; Incomplete markets; Risk premium; Stochastic programming; Super-replicationRisk premiumStochastic programmingDebt restructuringIndustrial and Manufacturing EngineeringSettore SECS-S/06 -Metodi Mat. dell'Economia e d. Scienze Attuariali e Finanz.Incomplete markets0502 economics and businessEconometricsEconomicsCapital asset pricing model050207 economicsBusiness and International ManagementSuper-replicationContingent bond050208 financeApplied MathematicsBond05 social sciencesRisk premiumAsset pricingBond market indexMaturity (finance)Stochastic programmingRisk-free bond8. Economic growthPortfolioCoupondescription
Abstract We model the super-replication of payoffs linked to a country’s GDP as a stochastic linear program on a discrete time and state-space scenario tree to price GDP-linked bonds. As a byproduct of the model we obtain a hedging portfolio. Using linear programming duality we compute also the risk premium. The model applies to coupon-indexed and principal-indexed bonds, and allows the analysis of bonds with different design parameters (coupon, target GDP growth rate, and maturity). We calibrate for UK and US instruments, and carry out sensitivity analysis of prices and risk premia to the risk factors and bond design parameters. We also compare coupon-indexed and principal-indexed bonds. Further results with calibrated instruments for Germany, Italy and South Africa shed light on a policy question, whether the risk premia of these bonds make them beneficial for sovereigns. Our findings affirm that designs are possible for both coupon-indexed and principal-indexed bonds that can benefit a sovereign, with an advantage for coupon-indexed bonds. This finding is robust, but a nuanced reading is needed due to the many inter-related risk factors and design parameters that affect prices and premia.
| year | journal | country | edition | language |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-01 |