6533b859fe1ef96bd12b8151

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Estimation of flood inundation probabilities using global hazard indexes based on hydrodynamic variables

Giuseppe Tito AronicaMario SantoroAngela CandelaPamela Fabio

subject

HydrologyHazard (logic)Flood inundation Flood risk Hazard index Frequency analysis Uncertainty analysis GLUE procedure.Flood mythSettore ICAR/02 - Costruzioni Idrauliche E Marittime E IdrologiaFlood inundation Flood risk Frequency analysis GLUE procedure Hazard index Uncertainty analysisHazard indexHydrographflood inundation hazard mapFinite element methodGLUE procedureGeophysicsFlow (mathematics)Geochemistry and PetrologyFlood inundationStatistics100-year floodFlood riskUncertainty analysisFlood map uncertainty MonteCarlo approach GLUE methodology hazard index.Frequency analysisGLUEGeologyUncertainty analysis

description

In this paper a new procedure to derive flood hazard maps incorporating uncertainty concepts is presented. The layout of the procedure can be resumed as follows: (1) stochastic input of flood hydrograph modelled through a direct Monte-Carlo simulation based on flood recorded data. Generation of flood peaks and flow volumes has been obtained via copulas, which describe and model the correlation between these two variables independently of the marginal laws involved. The shape of hydrograph has been generated on the basis of a historical significant flood events, via cluster analysis; (2) modelling of flood propagation using a hyperbolic finite element model based on the DSV equations; (3) definition of global hazard indexes based on hydro-dynamic variables (i.e., water depth and flow velocities). The GLUE methodology has been applied in order to account for parameter uncertainty. The procedure has been tested on a flood prone area located in the southern part of Sicily, Italy. Three hazard maps have been obtained and then compared.

yearjournalcountryeditionlanguage
2008-01-01
http://hdl.handle.net/11570/1907043