6533b85cfe1ef96bd12bd461

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Erosion of Lizard Diversity by Climate Change and Altered Thermal Niches

William R. BranchNorberto Martínez-méndezDonald B. MilesDonald B. MilesFausto R. Méndez-de-la-cruzIgnacio De La RivaVirginie LepetzCarlos Frederico Duarte RochaJean ClobertRubi N. Meza-lázaroMartha L. Calderón-espinosaMariana MorandoDavid G. ChappleRafael A. Lara-resendizLuciano Javier AvilaJack W. SitesAaron M. BauerBarry SinervoBarry SinervoHéctor GadsdenBenoit HeulinNora R. IbargüengoytíaCesar Augusto Aguilar PuntrianoPedro Victoriano SepulvedaMaricela Villagrán-santa CruzTuula A. OksanenManuel MassotElizabeth Bastiaans

subject

0106 biological sciencesSELECTIONMaleAcclimatizationPopulation DynamicsBiodiversityUNCERTAINTY01 natural sciencesGlobal WarmingBody TemperaturePhylogeny0303 health sciencesMultidisciplinarybiologyGeographyEcologyECTOTHERMSReproductionTemperatureLizardsBiodiversityEXTINCTION RISKBiological EvolutionGeographyEctothermFemaleSeasonsClimate ChangeClimate changePREDICTIONSECOLOGYExtinction Biological010603 evolutionary biologyModels Biological03 medical and health sciencesbiology.animalAnimalsEcosystemSelection GeneticPHYSIOLOGYMexicoEcosystem030304 developmental biologyEcological nicheExtinctionLizardGlobal warmingEVOLUTION13. Climate action[SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and EcologyForecasting

description

It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.

yearjournalcountryeditionlanguage
2010-01-01
10.1126/science.1184695http://hdl.handle.net/10261/118078