6533b85dfe1ef96bd12bdf77

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Probabilistic Forecast for Northern New Zealand Seismic Process Based on a Forward Predictive Kernel Estimator

Marcello ChiodiGiada Adelfio

subject

Earthquake predictionProbabilistic logicEstimatorGeodesyPhysics::GeophysicsLatitudeGeographyKernel (statistics)Kernel smootherSpace-time intensity function kernel smoothing earthquakes forecastSettore SECS-S/01 - StatisticaLongitudeSeismologySmoothing

description

In seismology predictive properties of the estimated intensity function are often pursued. For this purpose, we propose an estimation procedure in time, longitude, latitude and depth domains, based on the subsequent increments of likelihood obtained adding an observation one at a time. On the basis of this estimation approach a forecast of earthquakes of a given area of Northern New Zealand is provided, assuming that future earthquakes activity may be based on the smoothing of past earthquakes.

yearjournalcountryeditionlanguage
2011-01-01
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-11363-5_14