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RESEARCH PRODUCT

The UK needs a sustainable strategy for COVID-19

Roberto CacciolaDebby BogaertLaura BearKarl J. FristonSaskia PopescuValentina GalloSusan MichieViola PriesemannJose M. Martin-morenoKrutika KuppalliZoë HydeChristina PagelRobert WestGavin YameyTrisha GreenhalghClare WenhamKen RiceAngela L. RasmussenTara C. SmithStephen ReicherLynn R. GoldmanWalter RicciardiHisham ZiauddeenRochelle BurgessMaimuna S. MajumderMartin MckeeDominic PimentaTim ColbournJohn DruryJoshua D. SilverAli NouriDeepti GurdasaniReinhard BusseYves CharpakChristian A. YatesElias Mossialos

subject

2019-20 coronavirus outbreakmedicine.medical_specialtyEconomic growthCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)International CooperationStrategyMEDLINESDG 3 - Good Health and Well-beingPolitical sciencePandemicCorrespondencemedicineFinancial SupportHumansPandemics/prevention & controlPandemicsReino unidoSchoolsSustainable strategyCOVID-19/economicsUnited Kingdom/epidemiologyPublic healthCOVID-19General MedicineCommunicable Disease Control/methodsDelivery of Health Care/methodsUnited KingdomCommunicable Disease Control/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/good_health_and_well_beingPublic HealthCOVID 19Delivery of Health Care

description

The UK is well into the second wave of COVID-19, with 60 051 lives lost to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection to date, according to provisional data from the Office for National Statistics. Official UK Government data show that cases have been rising exponentially since late August, 2020, with increases across all regions in England in recent weeks.As of Nov 4, 2020, the UK had 25 177 confirmed daily cases. These are almost certainly underestimates as between Oct 17 and Oct 23, 2020, England alone had 52 000 estimated daily cases.Estimates of the effective reproduction number in England vary between 1.1 and 1.6.Daily deaths have doubled every fortnight since early September, 2020, with 2067 deaths from COVID-19 in the past week and around 12 000 deaths more are likely in the next month—the majority among people who have already been infected. With 12 000 patients currently in hospital with COVID-19, health services are close to capacity in many regions. We are seeing more than 1400 daily hospital admissions in England, a single doubling period away from the peak of 3000 daily admissions that occurred in April, 2020, which could be reached within 2–3 weeks.

10.1016/s0140-6736(20)32350-3https://research.rug.nl/en/publications/bb7196ff-3b8d-46b0-8a54-d5341d728cf2