6533b861fe1ef96bd12c4b28

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Rational expectations behaviour of households : indicators, measures and tests

subject

description

The analysis of household survey data regularly conducted by INSEE from 1973 to 1994 allows to detect behaviors about anticipation and perception purpose concerning price and employment. The nature of available information offers the opportunity first to develop a rational expectation test for qualitative data, then to point out expectation errors associated to optimistic and/or pessimistic attitudes for the evolution of these two economic variables. The paper provides a series of synthetic and desegregated indicators (developed usually by psychologists, sociologists, economists, ...) then rational expectation tests and correct anticipation tests. Empirical results permit to establish rather optimistic behaviors (misjudgment with underestimation of unemployment and inflation) as well as rational expectation behaviors by a large part of households.