6533b862fe1ef96bd12c6065

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Global Demand for Paper Products: 2006–2050

Joonas JärvinenJuha-antti LambergTomi NokelainenHenrikki Tikkanen

subject

Consumption (economics)Demand managementPopulation ageingUrbanizationmedia_common.quotation_subjectDevelopment economicsForecast periodPer capitaEconomicsProsperityDemand forecastingmedia_common

description

Our aim is to formulate and present global demand forecasts for several paper products for the main regions of the world for the period 2005-2050. Our forecasts, while based on standard regression modeling, differ from existing ones in that they are based not only on historical observed consumption patterns and projections of economic growth, but also take into account changes in the demographic constitution of countries and regions, and incorporate the assumption that beyond certain level economic prosperity (here in terms of GDP per capita) does not translate into increased demand for paper products. Our key results are threefold. First, the demand for paperboard and hygiene products will continue to grow globally relative to that for printing papers. Second, overall demand growth will be most prominent in Asia, Africa, South America and Eastern Europe, whereas Western Europe and North America will exhibit slowly growing or even declining demand. And third, certain demographic changes, such as population ageing in Western Europe and North America, and continuing urbanization in Asia and Africa may result in unanticipated yet appreciable qualitative changes in future paper products consumption.

yearjournalcountryeditionlanguage
2012-01-01
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5431-7_12