6533b86efe1ef96bd12cbc78

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Introducing the Temporal Distortion Index to perform a bidimensional analysis of renewable energy forecast

Laura Frías-paredesMartín Gastón-romeoTeresa LeónFermin Mallor

subject

Measure (data warehouse)Dynamic time warpingIndex (economics)Wind powerComputer sciencebusiness.industry020209 energyMechanical Engineeringmedia_common.quotation_subjectWind power forecasting02 engineering and technologyBuilding and ConstructionPollutionIndustrial and Manufacturing EngineeringRenewable energyGeneral EnergyDistortion0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineeringEconometricsQuality (business)Electrical and Electronic EngineeringbusinessCivil and Structural Engineeringmedia_common

description

Abstract Wind has been the largest contributor to the growth of renewal energy during the early 21st century. However, the natural uncertainty that arises in assessing the wind resource implies the occurrence of wind power forecasting errors which perform a considerable role in the impacts and costs in the wind energy integration and its commercialization. The main goal of this paper is to provide a deeper insight in the analysis of timing errors which leads to the proposal of a new methodology for its control and measure. A new methodology, based on Dynamic Time Warping, is proposed to be considered in the estimation of accuracy as attribute of forecast quality. A new dissimilarity measure, the Temporal Distortion Index, among time series is introduced to complement the traditional verification measures found in the literature. Furthermore we provide a bi-criteria perspective to the problem of comparing different forecasts. The methodology is illustrated with several examples including a real case.

yearjournalcountryeditionlanguage
2016-01-01Energy
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.10.093