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RESEARCH PRODUCT

Predictive value for cardiovascular events of common carotid intima media thickness and its rate of change in individuals at high cardiovascular risk – Results from the PROG-IMT collaboration

Sathanur R. SrinivasanChristine Espinola-kleinAlbert HofmanJing LiuEric De GrootTomi-pekka TuomainenHelmuth SteinmetzTa-chen SuCarmen SuárezMaria RosvallStela MclachlanRaffaele IzzoMarcus DörrLiliana GrigoreGunnar EngströmStein Harald JohnsenDavid YanezGiel NijpelsGiuseppe Danilo NorataFabrizio VegliaMatthias W. LorenzDong ZhaoLu GaoWuxiang XieDamiano BaldassarreMauro AmatoEllisiv B. MathiesenMichiel L. BotsDirk SanderJoseph F. PolakMatthieu PlichartHolger PoppertMatthias SitzerRalph L. SaccoIrene SchmidtmannHeiko UthoffManuel F. LandechoHorst BickelGerald S. BerensonOscar H. FrancoBo HedbladKazuo KitagawaDaniel StaubJackie F. PriceCaroline SchmidtAlberico Luigi CatapanoTatjana RundekThapat WannarongThapat WannarongM. Arfan IkramKathrin ZiegelbauerAlfonso FrieraFrancesco RozzaKimmo RonkainenJacqueline M. DekkerPeter WilleitSamuela CastelnuovoCoen D.a. StehouwerShuhei OkazakiPierre DucimetièreBlankenberg StefanStefan BlankenbergJohann WilleitOscar BeloquiMaryam KavousiHenry VölzkeKuo-liong ChienGrace ParragaBernhard IglsederRafael GabrielLena BokemarkStefan KiechlCesare R. SirtoriGöran BergströmJussi KauhanenSimon G. ThompsonNicola De LucaLars LindJean Philippe EmpanaMoïse DesvarieuxUlf SchminkeHung-ju LinElena Tremoli

subject

MaleMyocardial Infarctionlcsh:MedicinePROGRESSIONCardiovascular Medicine030204 cardiovascular system & hematologyVascular MedicineBiochemistryCarotid Intima-Media ThicknessGeographical locationsDISEASE0302 clinical medicineRisk FactorsGermanyMedicine and Health SciencesMedicineCardiac and Cardiovascular SystemsMyocardial infarctionskin and connective tissue diseaseslcsh:ScienceARTERY INTIMAStrokeIntersectoral CollaborationPOPULATIONCardiovascular Diseases/diagnosisMETABOLIC SYNDROMEeducation.field_of_studyKardiologiMultidisciplinaryAgricultural and Biological Sciences(all)VDP::Medical disciplines: 700::Clinical medical disciplines: 750QHazard ratioVDP::Medisinske Fag: 700::Klinisk medisinske fag: 750RMiddle AgedPrognosisPredictive value3. Good healthStrokeEuropeNeurologyItalyCardiovascular DiseasesHYPERTENSIVE MENCardiologycardiovascular systemMedicineFemaleResearch Articlemedicine.medical_specialtyHigh cardiovascular risk.Cerebrovascular DiseasesSciencePopulationCardiology030209 endocrinology & metabolismATHEROSCLEROSIS RISKArbetsmedicin och miljömedicin03 medical and health sciencesCarotid intima media thickness (CIMT)Internal medicineHumansEuropean Unionddc:610cardiovascular diseaseseducationAgedSwedenBiochemistry Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)Proportional hazards modelbusiness.industrylcsh:RHealth Risk AnalysisCorrectionOccupational Health and Environmental HealthAtherosclerosismedicine.diseaseConfidence intervalHealth CareIntima-media thicknessMYOCARDIAL-INFARCTIONMedical Biophysicslcsh:QVASCULAR RISKsense organsCarotid intima media thickness Cardiovascular riskPeople and placesMetabolic syndromebusinessFOLLOW-UP030217 neurology & neurosurgeryGenetics and Molecular Biology(all)

description

AIMS: Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) predicts cardiovascular (CVD) events, but the predictive value of CIMT change is debated. We assessed the relation between CIMT change and events in individuals at high cardiovascular risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: From 31 cohorts with two CIMT scans (total n = 89070) on average 3.6 years apart and clinical follow-up, subcohorts were drawn: (A) individuals with at least 3 cardiovascular risk factors without previous CVD events, (B) individuals with carotid plaques without previous CVD events, and (C) individuals with previous CVD events. Cox regression models were fit to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of the combined endpoint (myocardial infarction, stroke or vascular death) per standard deviation (SD) of CIMT change, adjusted for CVD risk factors. These HRs were pooled across studies. In groups A, B and C we observed 3483, 2845 and 1165 endpoint events, respectively. Average common CIMT was 0.79mm (SD 0.16mm), and annual common CIMT change was 0.01mm (SD 0.07mm), both in group A. The pooled HR per SD of annual common CIMT change (0.02 to 0.43mm) was 0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.95-1.02) in group A, 0.98 (0.93-1.04) in group B, and 0.95 (0.89-1.04) in group C. The HR per SD of common CIMT (average of the first and the second CIMT scan, 0.09 to 0.75mm) was 1.15 (1.07-1.23) in group A, 1.13 (1.05-1.22) in group B, and 1.12 (1.05-1.20) in group C. CONCLUSIONS: We confirm that common CIMT is associated with future CVD events in individuals at high risk. CIMT change does not relate to future event risk in high-risk individuals. The PROG-IMT project, which includes this publication, has been funded by the German Research Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, www.dfg.de) under the grants DFG Lo 1569/2-1 and DFG Lo 1569/2-3, received by MWL. The DFG had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Simon Thompson is supported by the British heart Foundation (CH/12/2/29428). Some of the contributing studies were funded by different parties, as listed in the acknowledgement section. Here, too, the funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Sí

10.1371/journal.pone.0191172https://www.pure.ed.ac.uk/ws/files/58296917/Predictive_value_for_cardiovascular....pdf