6533b872fe1ef96bd12d42ad
RESEARCH PRODUCT
A Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647–1850
Miikka VoutilainenJouni HelskeJouni HelskeHarri Högmandersubject
aikasarjatEconomics060106 history of social sciencesPopulation DynamicsBayesian probabilityPopulationPopulation developmentHistory 18th CenturyArticleHistory 17th CenturyPopulation estimateväestöhistoriaPopulation historyResidence Characteristics0502 economics and businessEconometricsPopulation growthHumansPopulation growth0601 history and archaeologyuuden ajan alkuNationalekonomi050207 economicsEarly modern eraeducationFinlandestimointiDemographyBayes estimatoreducation.field_of_studybayesilainen menetelmä05 social sciencesväestönmuutoksetBayes TheoremCensusesHistory 19th CenturyPopulation history; Population growth; Early modern era; Bayesian estimation06 humanities and the artsBayesian estimationData setGeographypopulation growthearly modern erapopulation historydescription
This article provides a novel method for estimating historical population development. We review the previous literature on historical population time-series estimates and propose a general outline to address the well-known methodological problems. We use a Bayesian hierarchical time-series model that allows us to integrate the parish-level data set and prior population information in a coherent manner. The procedure provides us with model-based posterior intervals for the final population estimates. We demonstrate its applicability by estimating the long-term development of Finlands population from 1647 onward and simultaneously place the country among the very few to have an annual population series of such length available. Funding Agencies|University of Jyvaskyla (JYU); OP Group Research Foundation [201600139, 20170130, 20180071]; Academy of FinlandAcademy of Finland [284513, 312605, 311877, 308975]
| year | journal | country | edition | language |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-06-01 | Demography |