Search results for " Bayesian"
showing 10 items of 124 documents
$\texttt{HEPfit}$: a Code for the Combination of Indirect and Direct Constraints on High Energy Physics Models
2020
The European physical journal / C Particles and fields C80(5), 456 (2020). doi:10.1140/epjc/s10052-020-7904-z
Approximate Bayesian Computation for Forecasting in Hydrological models
2018
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a statistical tool for handling parameter inference in a range of challenging statistical problems, mostly characterized by an intractable likelihood function. In this paper, we focus on the application of ABC to hydrological models, not as a tool for parametric inference, but as a mechanism for generating probabilistic forecasts. This mechanism is referred as Approximate Bayesian Forecasting (ABF). The abcd water balance model is applied to a case study on Aipe river basin in Columbia to demonstrate the applicability of ABF. The predictivity of the ABF is compared with the predictivity of the MCMC algorithm. The results show that the ABF method as …
Distribuciones previas objetivas para el modelo Dirichlet-multinomial: una aplicación en la agricultura
2015
La chufa, Cyperus sculentus, es un tubérculo que se utiliza principalmente para la elaboración de horchata. Se cultiva en la comarca de l'Horta Nord, en Valencia, y tiene una gran importancia socioeconómica en la zona. La mancha negra en los tubérculos de chufa es una enfermedad de origen desconocido, que produce un ennegrecimiento de la piel que conlleva a su depreciación comercial, pues un cierto porcentaje de tubérculos deben ser desechados para su venta. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar si la selección de tubérculos sin mancha negra, para su utilización como simiente, supone una mejora en la cosecha en cuanto a una menor incidencia de la enfermedad. Los datos analizados proceden …
A Context-Aware System for Ambient Assisted Living
2017
In the near future, the world's population will be characterized by an increasing average age, and consequently, the number of people requiring for a special household assistance will dramatically rise. In this scenario, smart homes will significantly help users to increase their quality of life, while maintaining a great level of autonomy. This paper presents a system for Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) capable of understanding context and user's behavior by exploiting data gathered by a pervasive sensor network. The knowledge inferred by adopting a Bayesian knowledge extraction approach is exploited to disambiguate the collected observations, making the AAL system able to detect and predict…
An Ambient Intelligence System for Assisted Living
2017
Nowadays, the population's average age is constantly increasing, and thus the need for specialized home assistance is on the rise. Smart homes especially tailored to meet elderly and disabled people's needs can help them maintaining their autonomy, whilst ensuring their safety and well-being. This paper proposes a complete context-aware system for Ambient Assisted Living (AAL), which infers user's actions and context, analyzing its past and current behavior to detect anomalies and prevent possible emergencies. The proposed system exploits Dynamic Bayesian Networks to merge raw data coming from heterogeneous sensors and infer user's behavior and health conditions. A rule-based reasoner is ab…
INQUINAMENTO INDOOR DA RADON. UNA APPLICAZIONE DELLE RETI BAYESIANE A SUPPORTO DELLA DIAGNOSI
2010
Nel quadro più generale della tematica del controllo della qualità ambientale e più in particolare dell’Indoor Air Quality, la presente relazione riporta lo studio di un fenomeno di inquinamento da radon riguardante la scuola “G. Mancino” di Palermo. Lo spunto viene offerto dal fatto che nel 2005, nel corso di un monitoraggio della radioattività ambientale di Palermo, i tecnici dell’ARPA Sicilia hanno rilevato in questa scuola elementare degli anni ’30, livelli di radon indoor molto superiori ai limiti di legge fissati dal D.Lgs. 241/2000. Nella prima fase, dopo lo studio delle caratteristiche tipologiche e costruttive del plesso e l’acquisizione dei dati di misura pregressi, si è proceduto…
Manuale pratico per la diagnosi in reumatologia. Il ragionamento bayesiano applicato ai criteri diagnostici dell'American College of Reumatology. I e…
2009
Hidden connections: Network effects on editorial decisions in four computer science journals
2018
Abstract This paper aims to examine the influence of authors’ reputation on editorial bias in scholarly journals. By looking at eight years of editorial decisions in four computer science journals, including 7179 observations on 2913 submissions, we reconstructed author/referee-submission networks. For each submission, we looked at reviewer scores and estimated the reputation of submission authors by means of their network degree. By training a Bayesian network, we estimated the potential effect of scientist reputation on editorial decisions. Results showed that more reputed authors were less likely to be rejected by editors when they submitted papers receiving negative reviews. Although th…
Bayesian Analysis of a Future Beta Decay Experiment's Sensitivity to Neutrino Mass Scale and Ordering
2021
Bayesian modeling techniques enable sensitivity analyses that incorporate detailed expectations regarding future experiments. A model-based approach also allows one to evaluate inferences and predicted outcomes, by calibrating (or measuring) the consequences incurred when certain results are reported. We present procedures for calibrating predictions of an experiment's sensitivity to both continuous and discrete parameters. Using these procedures and a new Bayesian model of the $\beta$-decay spectrum, we assess a high-precision $\beta$-decay experiment's sensitivity to the neutrino mass scale and ordering, for one assumed design scenario. We find that such an experiment could measure the el…
Trophic structure of vermetid reef community: High trophic diversity at small spatial scales
2013
Stable isotopes were used to investigate contributions of autochthonous (i.e. benthic: epilithon and macroalgae) and allochthonous (i.e. pelagic: phytoplankton) organic matter sources to the diet of suspension-feeders, grazers and predators associated to small reef-pools (cuvettes) created by the reef-building species Dendropoma petraeum in the north-western coast of Sicily (Italy). Contributions of potential food sources were calculated using Bayesian mixing-models and integrated to a multivariate approach to highlight the diversity of C and N pathways within Dendropoma cuvettes. Both pelagic and benthic organic matter sources were exploited by benthic consumers, although clear differences…