Search results for " Inference"
showing 10 items of 337 documents
Probabilistic inference and syllogisms
2014
Traditionally, syllogisms are arguments with two premises and one conclusion which are constructed by propositions of the form “All S are P ” and “At least one S is P ” and their respective negated versions. We will discuss probabilistic notions of the existential import and the basic sentences type. We will develop an intuitively plausible version of the syllogisms that is able to deal with uncertainty, exceptions and nonmonotonicity. We will develop a new semantics for categorical syllogisms that is based on subjective probability. Specifically, we propose de Finetti’s principle of coherence and its generalization to lower and upper conditional probabilities as the fundamental corner ston…
Application of Inverse-Probability-of-Treatment Weighting to Estimate the Effect of Daytime Sleepiness in Obstructive sleep apnea patients
2022
Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), the first line therapy for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), is considered effective in reducing daytime sleepiness. Its efficacy relies on adequate adherence, often defined as >4 hours per night. However, this binary threshold may limit our understanding of the causal effect of CPAP adherence and daytime sleepiness and multilevel approach for CPAP adherence can be more appropriate.
A Generalized Missing-Indicator Approach to Regression with Imputed Covariates
2011
We consider estimation of a linear regression model using data where some covariate values are missing but imputations are available to fill in the missing values. This situation generates a tradeoff between bias and precision when estimating the regression parameters of interest. Using only the subsample of complete observations does not cause bias but may imply a substantial loss of precision because the complete cases may be too few. On the other hand, filling in the missing values with imputations may cause bias. We provide the new Stata command gmi, which handles such tradeoff by using either model reduction or Bayesian model averaging techniques in the context of the generalized miss…
Weighted-Average Least Squares (WALS): Confidence and Prediction Intervals
2022
We extend the results of De Luca et al. (2021) to inference for linear regression models based on weighted-average least squares (WALS), a frequentist model averaging approach with a Bayesian flavor. We concentrate on inference about a single focus parameter, interpreted as the causal effect of a policy or intervention, in the presence of a potentially large number of auxiliary parameters representing the nuisance component of the model. In our Monte Carlo simulations we compare the performance of WALS with that of several competing estimators, including the unrestricted least-squares estimator (with all auxiliary regressors) and the restricted least-squares estimator (with no auxiliary reg…
Causal inference in geosciences with kernel sensitivity maps
2020
Establishing causal relations between random variables from observational data is perhaps the most important challenge in today's Science. In remote sensing and geosciences this is of special relevance to better understand the Earth's system and the complex and elusive interactions between processes. In this paper we explore a framework to derive cause-effect relations from pairs of variables via regression and dependence estimation. We propose to focus on the sensitivity (curvature) of the dependence estimator to account for the asymmetry of the forward and inverse densities of approximation residuals. Results in a large collection of 28 geoscience causal inference problems demonstrate the…
Causal Inference in Geoscience and Remote Sensing From Observational Data
2020
Establishing causal relations between random variables from observational data is perhaps the most important challenge in today’s science. In remote sensing and geosciences, this is of special relevance to better understand the earth’s system and the complex interactions between the governing processes. In this paper, we focus on an observational causal inference, and thus, we try to estimate the correct direction of causation using a finite set of empirical data. In addition, we focus on the more complex bivariate scenario that requires strong assumptions and no conditional independence tests can be used. In particular, we explore the framework of (nondeterministic) additive noise models, …
Aerial Spectrum Surveying: Radio Map Estimation with Autonomous UAVs
2020
Radio maps are emerging as a popular means to endow next-generation wireless communications with situational awareness. In particular, radio maps are expected to play a central role in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) communications since they can be used to determine interference or channel gain at a spatial location where a UAV has not been before. Existing methods for radio map estimation utilize measurements collected by sensors whose locations cannot be controlled. In contrast, this paper proposes a scheme in which a UAV collects measurements along a trajectory. This trajectory is designed to obtain accurate estimates of the target radio map in a short time operation. The route planning a…
Particle Group Metropolis Methods for Tracking the Leaf Area Index
2020
Monte Carlo (MC) algorithms are widely used for Bayesian inference in statistics, signal processing, and machine learning. In this work, we introduce an Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique driven by a particle filter. The resulting scheme is a generalization of the so-called Particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) method, where a suitable Markov chain of sets of weighted samples is generated. We also introduce a marginal version for the goal of jointly inferring dynamic and static variables. The proposed algorithms outperform the corresponding standard PMH schemes, as shown by numerical experiments.
User Psychology: Re-assessing the Boundaries of a Discipline
2010
Currently, efforts of psychologists to improve interactive technology have fragmented and the systemization of scientific knowledge stalled. There is no home for integrative psychological research on computer use. In this programmatic paper, we reassess three meta-scientific issues defining this discipline. As the first step, we pro- pose to extend the subject of study from the analysis of human mind in the interaction to the broader view of human as an intentional user of interactive technology. Hence, the discipline is most aptly called user psychology. Secondly, problem-solving epistemology is advocated as an alternative to the notion from natural sciences that progress in science involv…
Interval estimation for the breakpoint in segmented regression: a smoothed score-based approach
2017
Summary This paper is concerned with interval estimation for the breakpoint parameter in segmented regression. We present score-type confidence intervals derived from the score statistic itself and from the recently proposed gradient statistic. Due to lack of regularity conditions of the score, non-smoothness and non-monotonicity, naive application of the score-based statistics is unfeasible and we propose to exploit the smoothed score obtained via induced smoothing. We compare our proposals with the traditional methods based on the Wald and the likelihood ratio statistics via simulations and an analysis of a real dataset: results show that the smoothed score-like statistics perform in prac…