Search results for " Inference"

Use of hierarchical Bayesian framework in MTS studies to model different causes and novel possible forms of acquired MTS

2015

Abstract: An integrative account of MTS could be cast in terms of hierarchical Bayesian inference. It may help to highlight a central role of sensory (tactile) precision could play in MTS. We suggest that anosognosic patients, with anesthetic hemisoma, can also be interpreted as a form of acquired MTS, providing additional data for the model.

Learning Bayesian Metanetworks from Data with Multilevel Uncertainty

2006

Managing knowledge by maintaining it according to dynamic context is among the basic abilities of a knowledge-based system. The two main challenges in managing context in Bayesian networks are the introduction of contextual (in)dependence and Bayesian multinets. We are presenting one possible implementation of a context sensitive Bayesian multinet-the Bayesian Metanetwork, which implies that interoperability between component Bayesian networks (valid in different contexts) can be also modelled by another Bayesian network. The general concepts and two kinds of such Metanetwork models are considered. The main focus of this paper is learning procedure for Bayesian Metanetworks.

A Bayesian Learning Automata-Based Distributed Channel Selection Scheme for Cognitive Radio Networks

2014

We consider a scenario where multiple Secondary Users SUs operate within a Cognitive Radio Network CRN which involves a set of channels, where each channel is associated with a Primary User PU. We investigate two channel access strategies for SU transmissions. In the first strategy, the SUs will send a packet directly without operating Carrier Sensing Medium Access/Collision Avoidance CSMA/CA whenever a PU is absent in the selected channel. In the second strategy, the SUs implement CSMA/CA to further reduce the probability of collisions among co-channel SUs. For each strategy, the channel selection problem is formulated and demonstrated to be a so-called "Potential" game, and a Bayesian Lea…

Empirical analysis of daily cash flow time-series and its implications for forecasting

2019

Usual assumptions on the statistical properties of daily net cash flows include normality, absence of correlation and stationarity. We provide a comprehensive study based on a real-world cash flow data set showing that: (i) the usual assumption of normality, absence of correlation and stationarity hardly appear; (ii) non-linearity is often relevant for forecasting; and (iii) typical data transformations have little impact on linearity and normality. This evidence may lead to consider a more data-driven approach such as time-series forecasting in an attempt to provide cash managers with expert systems in cash management.

Multiscale variation in drought controlled historical forest fire activity in the boreal forests of eastern Fennoscandia

2017

Forest fires are a key disturbance in boreal forests, and characteristics of fire regimes are among the most important factors explaining the variation in forest structure and species composition. The occurrence of fire is connected with climate, but earlier, mostly local-scale studies in the northern European boreal forests have provided little insight into fire-climate relationship before the modern fire suppression period. Here, we compiled annually resolved fire history, temperature, and precipitation reconstructions from eastern Fennoscandia from the mid-16th century to the end of the 19th century, a period of strong human influence on fires. We used synchrony of fires over the network…

Inductive inference of recursive functions: complexity bounds

1991

This survey includes principal results on complexity of inductive inference for recursively enumerable classes of total recursive functions. Inductive inference is a process to find an algorithm from sample computations. In the case when the given class of functions is recursively enumerable it is easy to define a natural complexity measure for the inductive inference, namely, the worst-case mindchange number for the first n functions in the given class. Surely, the complexity depends not only on the class, but also on the numbering, i.e. which function is the first, which one is the second, etc. It turns out that, if the result of inference is Goedel number, then complexity of inference ma…

Comparing various concepts of function prediction. Part 2.

1975

Prediction: f(m+1) is guessed from given f(0), ..., f(m). Program synthesis: a program computing f is guessed from given f(0), ..., f(m). The hypotheses are required to be correct for all sufficiently large m, or with some positive frequency. These approaches yield a hierarchy of function prediction and program synthesis concepts. The comparison problem of the concepts is solved.

Comparing various types of limiting synthesis and prediction of functions

1974

Herramientas estadísticas para resolver contrastes de hipótesis con contenido biológico: su uso en ecología del siglo XXI

2008

Amenudo la formación que han recibido durante la carrera los jóvenes investigadores tiene notables carencias en los aspectos prácticos de diseño experimental, análisis de datos e interpretación de resultados, lo cual limita de manera decisiva el provecho científico futuro de sus actividades. Eso es especialmente cierto en nuestros días, ya que vivimos una revolución importante en el campo de la metodología estadística e incluso en el procedimiento de hacer inferencia (el salto matemático desde las propiedades de nuestra muestra de datos a las de los parámetros desconocidos de la población, nuestro objeto de estudio), que afecta no sólo a los ecólogos sino a muchas otras disciplinas científi…

Application of a Bayesian Spatiotemporal Surveillance Method to NYC Syndromic Data

2014

Incorporating prior knowledge (e.g., the spatial distribution of zip codes and background population effects) into a model using Bayesian methods could potentially improve outbreak detection. We adapted a previously described Bayesian model-based spatiotemporal surveillance technique to daily respiratory syndrome counts in NYC Emergency Department data in 2009, the year of the H1N1 influenza pandemic. Citywide, 56 alarms were produced across 15 zip codes, all during days of elevated respiratory visits. Future work includes evaluating our choice of baseline length, considering other alarm thresholds, and conducting a formal evaluation of the method across five syndromes in NYC.