Search results for " Marko"
showing 10 items of 201 documents
Analysis of clickstream data with mixture hidden markov models
2021
clickstream data sono un’importante fonte di informazioni per l’ecommerce, sebbene non siano semplici da gestire e convertire queste informazioni in un reale vantaggio competitivo non e un compito banale. In questo articolo, consid- ` eriamo l’applicazione dei mixture hidden Markov model a dati relativi al flusso di clickstream estratti dal portale e-commerce di un’azienda di servizi turistici. Sono stati individuati cluster relativi al comportamento di navigazione degli utenti e alla loro posizione geografica che forniscono indicazioni importanti per lo sviluppo di nuove strategie di business. Clickstream data is an important source of information for businesses, however it is not easy to …
Observer-based finite-time fuzzy H∞ control for discrete-time systems with stochastic jumps and time-delays
2014
This paper is concerned with the problem of observer-based finite-time H ∞ control for a family of discrete-time Markovian jump nonlinear systems with time-delays represented by Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) model. The main contribution of this paper is to design an observer-based finite-time H ∞ controller such that the resulting closed-loop system is stochastic finite-time bounded and satisfies a prescribed H ∞ disturbance attenuation level over the given finite-time interval. Sufficient criteria on stochastic finite-time H ∞ stabilization via observer-based fuzzy state feedback are presented for the solvability of the problem, which can be tackled by a feasibility problem in terms of linear matrix…
Una metodologia per la suddivisione di un'area geografica regionale in Sistemi Turistici Locali.
2005
In questo lavoro si propone un metodo per a®rontare e risolvere il problema del dimensionamento e della localizzazione ottimali dei Sistemi Turistici Locali. A tal ¯ne, l'applicazione del modello proposto sull'area territoriale in esame viene iservata ad una fase in cui sono stati giµa presi in considerazione opzioni e vincoli trategici; viene presentato, invero, un criterio per la de¯nizione della gerarchia delle unitµa territoriali, che consente, d'altra parte, una sensibile riduzione delle alterna- ive ammissibili nella de¯nizione dei sistemi turistici, che avviene proponendo uno peci¯co algoritmo. l problema di ottimizzazione µe risolto successivamente mediante un procedimento di ricerc…
Towards a fuzzy-linguistic based social network sentiment-expression system
2015
Liking allows users of Social Networks, blogs and online magazines to express their support of posts and artifacts by a simple click. Such function is very popular but lacks semantic power, and some platforms have augmented it by allowing to choose a pictographic depiction corresponding to a feeling. What is gained in depth is lost in simplicity, and the wide acceptance liking has enjoyed did not carried to the sentiment version. We outline a sentiment-expression hybrid system based on textual analysis and linguistic fuzzy Markov chains overcoming the intrinsic limitations of liking without burdening the user with complex choices.
Usage of HMM-Based Speech Recognition Methods for Automated Determination of a Similarity Level Between Languages
2019
The problem of automated determination of language similarity (or even defining of a distance on the space of languages) could be solved in different ways – working with phonetic transcriptions, with speech recordings or both of them. For the recordings, we propose and test a HMM-based one: in the first part of our article we successfully try language detection, afterwards we are trying to calculate distances between HMM-based models, using different metrics and divergences. The Kullback-Leibler divergence is the only one we got good results with – it means that the calculated distances between languages correspond to analytical understanding of similarity between them. Even if it does not …
On Hagelbarger’s and Shannon’s matching pennies playing machines
2020
Abstract In the 1950s, Hagelbarger’s Sequence Extrapolating Robot (SEER) and Shannon’s Mind-Reading Machine (MRM) were the state-of-the-art research results in playing the well-known “matching pennies” game. In our research we perform a software implementation for both machines in order to test the common statement that MRM, even simpler, beats SEER. Also, we propose a simple contextual predictor (SCP) and use it to compete with SEER and MRM. As expected, experimental results proves the claimed MRM superiority over SEER and even the SCP’s superiority over both SEER and MRM. At the end, we draw some conclusions and propose further research ideas, like the use of mixing models methods and the…
Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models with a hidden Markov structure for the detection of influenza epidemic outbreaks
2015
Considerable effort has been devoted to the development of statistical algorithms for the automated monitoring of influenza surveillance data. In this article, we introduce a framework of models for the early detection of the onset of an influenza epidemic which is applicable to different kinds of surveillance data. In particular, the process of the observed cases is modelled via a Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson model in which the intensity parameter is a function of the incidence rate. The key point is to consider this incidence rate as a normal distribution in which both parameters (mean and variance) are modelled differently, depending on whether the system is in an epidemic or non-epide…
Bayesian Markov switching models for the early detection of influenza epidemics
2008
The early detection of outbreaks of diseases is one of the most challenging objectives of epidemiological surveillance systems. In this paper, a Markov switching model is introduced to determine the epidemic and non-epidemic periods from influenza surveillance data: the process of differenced incidence rates is modelled either with a first-order autoregressive process or with a Gaussian white-noise process depending on whether the system is in an epidemic or in a non-epidemic phase. The transition between phases of the disease is modelled as a Markovian process. Bayesian inference is carried out on the former model to detect influenza epidemics at the very moment of their onset. Moreover, t…
Multi-Phase epidemic model by a Markov chain
2008
Abstract In this paper we propose a continuous-time Markov chain to describe the spread of an infective and non-mortal disease into a community numerically limited and subjected to an external infection. We make a numerical simulation that shows tendencies for recurring epidemic outbreaks and for fade-out or extinction of the infection.
Can the Adaptive Metropolis Algorithm Collapse Without the Covariance Lower Bound?
2011
The Adaptive Metropolis (AM) algorithm is based on the symmetric random-walk Metropolis algorithm. The proposal distribution has the following time-dependent covariance matrix at step $n+1$ \[ S_n = Cov(X_1,...,X_n) + \epsilon I, \] that is, the sample covariance matrix of the history of the chain plus a (small) constant $\epsilon>0$ multiple of the identity matrix $I$. The lower bound on the eigenvalues of $S_n$ induced by the factor $\epsilon I$ is theoretically convenient, but practically cumbersome, as a good value for the parameter $\epsilon$ may not always be easy to choose. This article considers variants of the AM algorithm that do not explicitly bound the eigenvalues of $S_n$ away …