Search results for " Mathematics"
showing 10 items of 10797 documents
Calibrating Expert Assessments Using Hierarchical Gaussian Process Models
2020
Expert assessments are routinely used to inform management and other decision making. However, often these assessments contain considerable biases and uncertainties for which reason they should be calibrated if possible. Moreover, coherently combining multiple expert assessments into one estimate poses a long-standing problem in statistics since modeling expert knowledge is often difficult. Here, we present a hierarchical Bayesian model for expert calibration in a task of estimating a continuous univariate parameter. The model allows experts' biases to vary as a function of the true value of the parameter and according to the expert's background. We follow the fully Bayesian approach (the s…
Anaerobic degradation of 2-propanol: Laboratory and pilot-scale studies
2017
Abstract The anaerobic degradation of 2-propanol, an important industrial solvent, was scaled-up from batch assays to a pilot expanded granular sludge bed (EGSB) reactor at 25 °C. Batch studies indicated that 2-propanol followed Haldane kinetics, with a maximum rate at 10 g COD L −1 . Concentrations as high as 25 g COD L −1 did not inhibit the degradation of ethanol, a common co-solvent. Similar specific methanogenic activities (SMA) were obtained for water-solvent and water-brewery sludges (88 and 77 ml CH 4 g-VS −1 d −1 at 5 g COD L −1 ). Continuous degradation showed a lag-phase of three weeks with water-brewery sludge. Increases in 2-propanol load from 0.05 to 0.18 kg COD kg-VS −1 d …
Incorporating Biotic Information in Species Distribution Models: A Coregionalized Approach
2021
In this work, we discuss the use of a methodological approach for modelling spatial relationships among species by means of a Bayesian spatial coregionalized model. Inference and prediction is performed using the integrated nested Laplace approximation methodology to reduce the computational burden. We illustrate the performance of the coregionalized model in species interaction scenarios using both simulated and real data. The simulation demonstrates the better predictive performance of the coregionalized model with respect to the univariate models. The case study focus on the spatial distribution of a prey species, the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus), and one of its predator spe…
Unsupervised Classification of Acoustic Echoes from Two Krill Species in the Southern Ocean (Ross Sea)
2021
This work presents a computational methodology able to automatically classify the echoes of two krill species recorded in the Ross sea employing scientific echo-sounder at three different frequencies (38, 120 and 200 kHz). The goal of classifying the gregarious species represents a time-consuming task and is accomplished by using differences and/or thresholds estimated on the energy features of the insonified targets. Conversely, our methodology takes into account energy, morphological and depth features of echo data, acquired at different frequencies. Internal validation indices of clustering were used to verify the ability of the clustering in recognizing the correct number of species. Th…
Identifying small pelagic Mediterranean fish schools from acoustic and environmental data using optimized artificial neural networks
2019
Abstract The Common Fisheries Policy of the European Union aims to exploit fish stocks at a level of Maximum Sustainable Yield by 2020 at the latest. At the Mediterranean level, the General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean (GFCM) has highlighted the importance of reversing the observed declining trend of fish stocks. In this complex context, it is important to obtain reliable biomass estimates to support scientifically sound advice for sustainable management of marine resources. This paper presents a machine learning methodology for the classification of pelagic species schools from acoustic and environmental data. In particular, the methodology was tuned for the recognition of an…
Assessing the spatiotemporal persistence of fish distributions: a case study on two red mullet species (Mullus surmuletus and M. barbatus) in the wes…
2020
Understanding the spatiotemporal persistence of fish distributions is key to defining fish hotspots and effective fisheries-restricted areas (FRAs). Hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal models provide an excellent framework to understand these distributions, as they can accommodate different spatiotemporal behaviour in the data, primarily due to their flexibility. The aim of this research was to characterize the fundamental behavioural patterns of fish as persistent, opportunistic or progressive by comparing different spatiotemporal model structures in order to provide better information for marine spatial planning. To illustrate this method, the spatiotemporal distributions of 2 sympatric …
Efficient estimation of generalized linear latent variable models.
2019
Generalized linear latent variable models (GLLVM) are popular tools for modeling multivariate, correlated responses. Such data are often encountered, for instance, in ecological studies, where presence-absences, counts, or biomass of interacting species are collected from a set of sites. Until very recently, the main challenge in fitting GLLVMs has been the lack of computationally efficient estimation methods. For likelihood based estimation, several closed form approximations for the marginal likelihood of GLLVMs have been proposed, but their efficient implementations have been lacking in the literature. To fill this gap, we show in this paper how to obtain computationally convenient estim…
Natural Selection Fails to Optimize Mutation Rates for Long-Term Adaptation on Rugged Fitness Landscapes
2008
The rate of mutation is central to evolution. Mutations are required for adaptation, yet most mutations with phenotypic effects are deleterious. As a consequence, the mutation rate that maximizes adaptation will be some intermediate value. Here, we used digital organisms to investigate the ability of natural selection to adjust and optimize mutation rates. We assessed the optimal mutation rate by empirically determining what mutation rate produced the highest rate of adaptation. Then, we allowed mutation rates to evolve, and we evaluated the proximity to the optimum. Although we chose conditions favorable for mutation rate optimization, the evolved rates were invariably far below the optimu…
Testing hypotheses in evolutionary ecology with imperfect detection: capture-recapture structural equation modeling.
2012
8 pages; International audience; Studying evolutionary mechanisms in natural populations often requires testing multifactorial scenarios of causality involving direct and indirect relationships among individual and environmental variables. It is also essential to account for the imperfect detection of individuals to provide unbiased demographic parameter estimates. To cope with these issues, we developed a new approach combining structural equation models with capture-recapture models (CR-SEM) that allows the investigation of competing hypotheses about individual and environmental variability observed in demographic parameters. We employ Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in a Bayesian frame…
Quantifying and addressing the prevalence and bias of study designs in the environmental and social sciences
2020
Building trust in science and evidence-based decision-making depends heavily on the credibility of studies and their findings. Researchers employ many different study designs that vary in their risk of bias to evaluate the true effect of interventions or impacts. Here, we empirically quantify, on a large scale, the prevalence of different study designs and the magnitude of bias in their estimates. Randomised designs and controlled observational designs with pre-intervention sampling were used by just 23% of intervention studies in biodiversity conservation, and 36% of intervention studies in social science. We demonstrate, through pairwise within-study comparisons across 49 environmental da…