Search results for " PREDICTION"
showing 10 items of 366 documents
Finding optimal finite biological sequences over finite alphabets: the OptiFin toolbox
2017
International audience; In this paper, we present a toolbox for a specific optimization problem that frequently arises in bioinformatics or genomics. In this specific optimisation problem, the state space is a set of words of specified length over a finite alphabet. To each word is associated a score. The overall objective is to find the words which have the lowest possible score. This type of general optimization problem is encountered in e.g 3D conformation optimisation for protein structure prediction, or largest core genes subset discovery based on best supported phylogenetic tree for a set of species. In order to solve this problem, we propose a toolbox that can be easily launched usin…
A probabilistic estimation and prediction technique for dynamic continuous social science models: The evolution of the attitude of the Basque Country…
2015
In this paper, a computational technique to deal with uncertainty in dynamic continuous models in Social Sciences is presented.Considering data from surveys,the method consists of determining the probability distribution of the survey output and this allows to sample data and fit the model to the sampled data using a goodness-of-fit criterion based the χ2-test. Taking the fitted parameters that were not rejected by the χ2-test, substituting them into the model and computing their outputs, 95% confidence intervals in each time instant capturing the uncertainty of the survey data (probabilistic estimation) is built. Using the same set of obtained model parameters, a prediction over …
ASR performance prediction on unseen broadcast programs using convolutional neural networks
2018
In this paper, we address a relatively new task: prediction of ASR performance on unseen broadcast programs. We first propose an heterogenous French corpus dedicated to this task. Two prediction approaches are compared: a state-of-the-art performance prediction based on regression (engineered features) and a new strategy based on convolutional neural networks (learnt features). We particularly focus on the combination of both textual (ASR transcription) and signal inputs. While the joint use of textual and signal features did not work for the regression baseline, the combination of inputs for CNNs leads to the best WER prediction performance. We also show that our CNN prediction remarkably …
Analyzing Learned Representations of a Deep ASR Performance Prediction Model
2018
This paper addresses a relatively new task: prediction of ASR performance on unseen broadcast programs. In a previous paper, we presented an ASR performance prediction system using CNNs that encode both text (ASR transcript) and speech, in order to predict word error rate. This work is dedicated to the analysis of speech signal embeddings and text embeddings learnt by the CNN while training our prediction model. We try to better understand which information is captured by the deep model and its relation with different conditioning factors. It is shown that hidden layers convey a clear signal about speech style, accent and broadcast type. We then try to leverage these 3 types of information …
Transfer Learning with Convolutional Networks for Atmospheric Parameter Retrieval
2018
The Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on board the MetOp satellite series provides important measurements for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). Retrieving accurate atmospheric parameters from the raw data provided by IASI is a large challenge, but necessary in order to use the data in NWP models. Statistical models performance is compromised because of the extremely high spectral dimensionality and the high number of variables to be predicted simultaneously across the atmospheric column. All this poses a challenge for selecting and studying optimal models and processing schemes. Earlier work has shown non-linear models such as kernel methods and neural networks perform w…
Multi-label Methods for Prediction with Sequential Data
2017
The number of methods available for classification of multi-label data has increased rapidly over recent years, yet relatively few links have been made with the related task of classification of sequential data. If labels indices are considered as time indices, the problems can often be seen as equivalent. In this paper we detect and elaborate on connections between multi-label methods and Markovian models, and study the suitability of multi-label methods for prediction in sequential data. From this study we draw upon the most suitable techniques from the area and develop two novel competitive approaches which can be applied to either kind of data. We carry out an empirical evaluation inves…
Forecasting : theory and practice
2022
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a varie…
Epidemic spreading and aging in temporal networks with memory
2018
Time-varying network topologies can deeply influence dynamical processes mediated by them. Memory effects in the pattern of interactions among individuals are also known to affect how diffusive and spreading phenomena take place. In this paper we analyze the combined effect of these two ingredients on epidemic dynamics on networks. We study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) and the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) models on the recently introduced activity-driven networks with memory. By means of an activity-based mean-field approach we derive, in the long time limit, analytical predictions for the epidemic threshold as a function of the parameters describing the distribution of …
Thresholding projection estimators in functional linear models
2008
We consider the problem of estimating the regression function in functional linear regression models by proposing a new type of projection estimators which combine dimension reduction and thresholding. The introduction of a threshold rule allows to get consistency under broad assumptions as well as minimax rates of convergence under additional regularity hypotheses. We also consider the particular case of Sobolev spaces generated by the trigonometric basis which permits to get easily mean squared error of prediction as well as estimators of the derivatives of the regression function. We prove these estimators are minimax and rates of convergence are given for some particular cases.
COMPLEX ANALYSIS OF COMPANY BANKRUPTCY FORECASTING: THEORETICAL INSIGHT
2018
In modern conditions for dynamic and competitive businesses, more and more companies face financial problems and eventually go bankrupt. A noteworthy trend: not only new companies that have not yet managed to establish themselves in the market go bankrupt but also large companies operating for years and maintaining good traditions. Bankruptcies of companies cause many problems not only for the companies themselves but also for the state and many members of society. Thus, it is crucial to evaluate the financial state of a company and its activity results as accurately and early as possible when forecasting the possibility of a bankruptcy. The paper recommends a complex analysis methodology f…