Search results for " Prediction"

Improving RAMS and WRF mesoscale forecasts over two distinct vegetation covers using an appropriate thermal roughness length parameterization

2019

Land Surface Models (LSM) have shown some difficulties to properly simulate day-time 2-m air and surface skin temperatures. This kind of models are coupled to atmospheric models in mesoscale modelling, such as the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. This model coupling is used within Numerical Weather Prediction Systems (NWP) in order to forecast key physical processes for agricultural meteorology and forestry as well as in ecological modelling. The current study first evaluates the surface energy fluxes and temperatures simulated by these two state-of-the-art NWP models over two distinct vegetated covers, one corresponding to a …

Processes governing the amplification of ensemble spread in a medium-range forecast with large forecast uncertainty

2019

This study provides a process-based perspective on the amplification of forecast uncertainty and forecast errors in ensemble forecasts. A case from the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment that exhibits large forecast uncertainty is analysed. Two aspects of the ensemble behaviour are considered: (a) the mean divergence of the ensemble members, indicating the general amplification of forecast uncertainty, and (b) the divergence of the best and worst members, indicating extremes in possible error-growth scenarios. To analyse the amplification of forecast uncertainty, a tendency equation for the ensemble variance of potential vorticity (PV) is derived and partitioned into …

Real-time weather forecasting in the Western Mediterranean Basin: An application of the RAMS model

2014

Abstract A regional forecasting system based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is being run at the CEAM Foundation. The model is started twice daily with a forecast range of 72 h. For the period June 2007 to August 2010 the verification of the model has been done using a series of automatic meteorological stations from the CEAM network and located within the Valencia Region (Western Mediterranean Basin). Air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed and direction of the output of the model have been compared with observations. For these variables, an operational verification has been performed by computing different statistical scores for 18 weather stations. This verif…

Sources of water vapour contributing to the Elbe flood in August 2002-A tagging study in a mesoscale model

2009

In this study we investigate the contribution of various moisture sources to the Elbe flood that occurred in Central Europe during August 2002. An 8-day simulation with the mesoscale numerical weather prediction model CHRM, including newly implemented water vapour tracers, has been performed. According to the simulation, rather than drawing moisture from one single dominant source region, water vapour from widely separated moisture sources contributed to the extreme precipitation in the most affected area, notably at distinct, subsequent periods of time, and each in significant amounts. These moisture sources include the Atlantic and Mediterranean ocean areas inside the model domain, evapot…

Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction

2020

Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-…

Prior Precision Modulates the Minimization of Auditory Prediction Error

2019

International audience; The predictive coding model of perception proposes that successful representation of the perceptual world depends upon canceling out the discrepancy between prediction and sensory input (i.e., prediction error). Recent studies further suggest a distinction to be made between prediction error triggered by non-predicted stimuli of different prior precision (i.e., inverse variance). However, it is not fully understood how prediction error with different precision levels is minimized in the predictive process. Here, we conducted a magnetoencephalography (MEG) experiment which orthogonally manipulated prime-probe relation (for contextual precision) and stimulus repetition…

BRCA1/2 variants of unknown significance in hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) syndrome: Looking for the hidden meaning

2021

Hereditary breast and ovarian cancer syndrome is caused by germline mutations in BRCA1/2 genes. These genes are very large and their mutations are heterogeneous and scattered throughout the coding sequence. In addition to the above-mentioned mutations, variants of uncertain/unknown significance (VUSs) have been identified in BRCA genes, which make more difficult the clinical management of the patient and risk assessment. In the last decades, several laboratories have developed different databases that contain more than 2000 variants for the two genes and integrated strategies which include multifactorial prediction models based on direct and indirect genetic evidence, to classify the VUSs a…

Predicting soil loss in central and south Italy with a single USLE-MM model

2018

Purpose: The USLE-MM estimates event normalized plot soil loss, Ae,N, by an erosivity term given by the runoff coefficient, QR, times the single-storm erosion index, EI30, raised to an exponent b1> 1. This modeling scheme is based on an expected power relationship, with an exponent greater than one, between event sediment concentration, Ce, and the EI30/Pe(Pe= rainfall depth) term. In this investigation, carried out at the three experimental sites of Bagnara, Masse, and Sparacia, in Italy; the soundness of the USLE-MM scheme was tested. Materials and methods: A total of 1192 (Ae,N, QREI30) data pairs were used to parameterize the model both locally and considering all sites simultaneously. …

Commentary: Rational Adaptation in Lexical Prediction: The Influence of Prediction Strength

2021

Experimental observations of upstream overdeepening

2005

The issue of morphodynamic influence in meandering streams is investigated through a series of laboratory experiments on curved and straight flumes. Both qualitative and quantitative observations confirm the suitability of the recent theoretical developments (Zolezzi & Seminara 2001) that indicate the occurrence of two distinct regimes of morphodynamic influence, depending on the value of the width ratio of the channel β. The threshold value βR separating the upstream from the downstream influence regimes coincides with the resonant value discovered by Blondeaux & Seminara (1985). Indeed it is observed that upstream influence may occur only in relatively wide channels, while narrower stream…