Search results for " Probability distribution"

Asset Return Dynamics under Alternative Learning Schemes

2009

In this paper we design an artificial financial market where endogenous volatility is created assigning to the agents diverse prior beliefs about the joint distribution of returns, and, over time, making agents rationally update their beliefs using common public information. We analyze the asset price dynamics generated under two learning environments: one where agents assume that the joint distribution of returns is IID, and another where agents believe in the existence of regimes in the joint distribution of asset returns. We show that the regime switching learning structure can generate all the most common stylized facts of financial markets: fat tails and long-range dependence in volati…

Probabilistic foundations of contextuality

2017

Contextuality is usually defined as absence of a joint distribution for a set of measurements (random variables) with known joint distributions of some of its subsets. However, if these subsets of measurements are not disjoint, contextuality is mathematically impossible even if one generally allows (as one must) for random variables not to be jointly distributed. To avoid contradictions one has to adopt the Contextuality-by-Default approach: measurements made in different contexts are always distinct and stochastically unrelated to each other. Contextuality is reformulated then in terms of the (im)possibility of imposing on all the measurements in a system a joint distribution of a particul…

Quantum Entanglement and the Issue of Selective Influences in Psychology: An Overview

2012

Similar formalisms have been independently developed in psychology, to deal with the issue of selective influences (deciding which of several experimental manipulations selectively influences each of several, generally non-independent, response variables), and in quantum mechanics (QM), to deal with the EPR entanglement phenomena (deciding whether an EPR experiment allows for a "classical" account). The parallels between these problems are established by observing that any two noncommuting measurements in QM are mutually exclusive and can therefore be treated as analogs of different values of one and the same input. Both problems reduce to that of the existence of a jointly distributed syst…

Contextuality in canonical systems of random variables

2017

Random variables representing measurements, broadly understood to include any responses to any inputs, form a system in which each of them is uniquely identified by its content (that which it measures) and its context (the conditions under which it is recorded). Two random variables are jointly distributed if and only if they share a context. In a canonical representation of a system, all random variables are binary, and every content-sharing pair of random variables has a unique maximal coupling (the joint distribution imposed on them so that they coincide with maximal possible probability). The system is contextual if these maximal couplings are incompatible with the joint distributions o…

Markov extensions for multi-dimensional dynamical systems

1999

By a result of F. Hofbauer [11], piecewise monotonic maps of the interval can be identified with topological Markov chains with respect to measures with large entropy. We generalize this to arbitrary piecewise invertible dynamical systems under the following assumption: the total entropy of the system should be greater than the topological entropy of the boundary of some reasonable partition separating almost all orbits. We get a sufficient condition for these maps to have a finite number of invariant and ergodic probability measures with maximal entropy. We illustrate our results by quoting an application to a class of multi-dimensional, non-linear, non-expansive smooth dynamical systems.

Contextuality is About Identity of Random Variables

2014

Contextual situations are those in which seemingly "the same" random variable changes its identity depending on the conditions under which it is recorded. Such a change of identity is observed whenever the assumption that the variable is one and the same under different conditions leads to contradictions when one considers its joint distribution with other random variables (this is the essence of all Bell-type theorems). In our Contextuality-by-Default approach, instead of asking why or how the conditions force "one and the same" random variable to change "its" identity, any two random variables recorded under different conditions are considered different "automatically". They are never the…

Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for an Extended Noncontextuality in a Broad Class of Quantum Mechanical Systems

2015

The notion of (non)contextuality pertains to sets of properties measured one subset (context) at a time. We extend this notion to include so-called inconsistently connected systems, in which the measurements of a given property in different contexts may have different distributions, due to contextual biases in experimental design or physical interactions (signaling): a system of measurements has a maximally noncontextual description if they can be imposed a joint distribution on in which the measurements of any one property in different contexts are equal to each other with the maximal probability allowed by their different distributions. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for th…

Modelling the frequency distribution of inter-arrival times from daily precipitation time-series in North-West Italy

2018

Abstract The discrete three-parameter Lerch distribution is used to analyse the frequency distribution of inter-arrival times derived from 26 daily precipitation time-series, collected by stations located throughout a 28,000 km2 area in North-West Italy (altitudes ranging from 113 m to 2,170 m a.s.l.). The precipitation regime of these Alpine regions is very different (latitude 44.5 to 46.5 N) from the typical Mediterranean precipitation regime of the island of Sicily (latitude 37 to 38 N), where the Lerch distribution has already been tested and whose results are compared. In order to verify the homogeneity of the precipitation time series, the Pettitt test was preliminarily performed. In …

Survival probability approach to the relaxation of a macroscopic system in the defect-diffusion framework

2004

A Qualified Kolmogorovian Account of Probabilistic Contextuality

2014

We describe a mathematical language for determining all possible patterns of contextuality in the dependence of stochastic outputs of a system on its deterministic inputs. The central principle contextuality-by-default is that the outputs indexed by mutually incompatible values of inputs are stochastically unrelated; but they can be coupled imposed a joint distribution on in a variety of ways. A system is characterized by a pattern of which outputs can be "directly influenced" by which inputs a primitive relation, hypothetical or normative, and by certain constraints imposed on the outputs such as Bell-type inequalities or their quantum analogues. The set of couplings compatible with these …