Search results for " Probability"

Researching Conditional Probability Problem Solving

2014

The chapter is organized into two parts. In the first one, the main protagonist is the conditional probability problem. We show a theoretical study about conditional probability problems, identifying a particular family of problems we call ternary problems of conditional probability. We define the notions of Level, Category and Type of a problem in order to classify them into sub-families and in order to study them better. We also offer a tool we call trinomial graph that functions as a generative model for this family of problems. We show the syntax of the model that allows researchers and teachers to translate a problem in terms of the trinomial graphs language, and the consequences of th…

Why a Quantum Tool in Classical Contexts?

2012

Bounded Computational Capacity Equilibrium

2010

We study repeated games played by players with bounded computational power, where, in contrast to Abreu and Rubisntein (1988), the memory is costly. We prove a folk theorem: the limit set of equilibrium payoffs in mixed strategies, as the cost of memory goes to 0, includes the set of feasible and individually rational payoffs. This result stands in sharp contrast to Abreu and Rubisntein (1988), who proved that when memory is free, the set of equilibrium payoffs in repeated games played by players with bounded computational power is a strict subset of the set of feasible and individually rational payoffs. Our result emphasizes the role of memory cost and of mixing when players have bounded c…

Mean Field Linear Quadratic Games with Set Up Costs

2013

This paper studies linear quadratic games with set up costs monotonic on the number of active players, namely, players whose action is non-null. Such games arise naturally in joint replenishment inventory systems. Building upon a preliminary analysis of the properties of the best response strategies and Nash equilibria for the given game, the main contribution is the study of the same game under large population. We also analyze the influence of an additional disturbance in the spirit of the literature on H∞ control. Numerical illustrations are provided. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Introspection and equilibrium selection in 2 � 2 matrix games

1994

Game theory lacks an explanation of how players' beliefs are formed and why they are in equilibrium. This is the reason why it has failed to make significant advances with the problem of equilibrium selection even for quite siniple games, as 2x2 games with two strict Nash equilibria. Our paper models the introspection process by which the selected equilibrium is achieved in this class of games. Players begin their analysis with imprecise priors, obtained under weak restrictions formulated as Axioms. For a large class of reasoning dynamics we obtain as the solution the risk dominant Nash equilibrium.

An overview of semi-infinite programming theory and related topics through a generalization of the alternative theorems

1984

We propose new alternative theorems for convex infinite systems which constitute the generalization of the corresponding toGale, Farkas, Gordan andMotzkin. By means of these powerful results we establish new approaches to the Theory of Infinite Linear Inequality Systems, Perfect Duality, Semi-infinite Games and Optimality Theory for non-differentiable convex Semi-Infinite Programming Problem.

Pricing of Forwards and Options in a Multivariate Non-Gaussian Stochastic Volatility Model for Energy Markets

2013

In Benth and Vos (2013) we introduced a multivariate spot price model with stochastic volatility for energy markets which captures characteristic features, such as price spikes, mean reversion, stochastic volatility, and inverse leverage effect as well as dependencies between commodities. In this paper we derive the forward price dynamics based on our multivariate spot price model, providing a very flexible structure for the forward curves, including contango, backwardation, and hump shape. Moreover, a Fourier transform-based method to price options on the forward is described.

Analysis of tide measurements in a Sicilian harbour

2011

Designing of ports and coastal protection works as well as planning of coastal human activities require knowledge of tidal oscillations. The latter vary noticeably from site to site and present an “astronomic” component, which is roughly periodic, and a “meteorological” component which is usually considered as random. In this paper, the tidal oscillations observed in a Sicilian harbour in the period 1999-2009 are analysed statistically, in order to recognize a probability distribution which allows one to predict the highest tidal levels. First, the measurements are used to obtain, for each year, the astronomic tide by the harmonic analysis by the software package T_TIDE. The difference betw…

Time Trends in the Joint Distributions of Income and Age

2001

We propose a method of analyzing time changes of joint income-age densities. Change is decomposed into time invariant components which act on the densities as deformations with time varying strength. The functional form of these components is estimated non parametrically from cross sectional data. The method is applied to analyze British household data on income and age for the years 1968–95. It is learned that for the young and middle aged there is a trend towards increasing inequality, while during the early eighties there seems to occur a reversal in the evolution of the income distribution for the old.

Analytically solvable Hamiltonians for quantum two-level systems and their dynamics

2014

A simple systematic way of obtaining analytically solvable Hamiltonians for quantum two-level systems is presented. In this method, a time-dependent Hamiltonian and the resulting unitary evolution operator are connected through an arbitrary function of time, furnishing us with new analytically solvable cases. The method is surprisingly simple, direct, and transparent and is applicable to a wide class of two-level Hamiltonians with no involved constraint on the input function. A few examples illustrate how the method leads to simple solvable Hamiltonians and dynamics.