Search results for " Probability"
showing 10 items of 2176 documents
Examining nonstationarity in the recruitment dynamics of fishes using Bayesian change point analysis
2017
Marine ecosystems can undergo regime shifts, which result in nonstationarity in the dynamics of the fish populations inhabiting them. The assumption of time-invariant parameters in stock–recruitment models can lead to severe errors when forecasting renewal ability of stocks that experience shifts in their recruitment dynamics. We present a novel method for fitting stock–recruitment models using the Bayesian online change point detection algorithm, which is able to cope with sudden changes in the model parameters. We validate our method using simulations and apply it to empirical data of four demersal fishes in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence. We show that all of the stocks have experience…
Comparison of Bayesian and numerical optimization-based diet estimation on herbivorous zooplankton
2020
Consumer diet estimation with biotracer-based mixing models provides valuable information about trophic interactions and the dynamics of complex ecosystems. Here, we assessed the performance of four Bayesian and three numerical optimization-based diet estimation methods for estimating the diet composition of herbivorous zooplankton using consumer fatty acid (FA) profiles and resource library consisting of the results of homogeneous diet feeding experiments. The method performance was evaluated in terms of absolute errors, central probability interval checks, the success in identifying the primary resource in the diet, and the ability to detect the absence of resources in the diet. Despite …
Incorporating Biotic Information in Species Distribution Models: A Coregionalized Approach
2021
In this work, we discuss the use of a methodological approach for modelling spatial relationships among species by means of a Bayesian spatial coregionalized model. Inference and prediction is performed using the integrated nested Laplace approximation methodology to reduce the computational burden. We illustrate the performance of the coregionalized model in species interaction scenarios using both simulated and real data. The simulation demonstrates the better predictive performance of the coregionalized model with respect to the univariate models. The case study focus on the spatial distribution of a prey species, the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus), and one of its predator spe…
Unsupervised Classification of Acoustic Echoes from Two Krill Species in the Southern Ocean (Ross Sea)
2021
This work presents a computational methodology able to automatically classify the echoes of two krill species recorded in the Ross sea employing scientific echo-sounder at three different frequencies (38, 120 and 200 kHz). The goal of classifying the gregarious species represents a time-consuming task and is accomplished by using differences and/or thresholds estimated on the energy features of the insonified targets. Conversely, our methodology takes into account energy, morphological and depth features of echo data, acquired at different frequencies. Internal validation indices of clustering were used to verify the ability of the clustering in recognizing the correct number of species. Th…
The analysis of convergence in ecological indicators: An application to the Mediterranean fisheries
2017
9 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables
Assessing the spatiotemporal persistence of fish distributions: a case study on two red mullet species (Mullus surmuletus and M. barbatus) in the wes…
2020
Understanding the spatiotemporal persistence of fish distributions is key to defining fish hotspots and effective fisheries-restricted areas (FRAs). Hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal models provide an excellent framework to understand these distributions, as they can accommodate different spatiotemporal behaviour in the data, primarily due to their flexibility. The aim of this research was to characterize the fundamental behavioural patterns of fish as persistent, opportunistic or progressive by comparing different spatiotemporal model structures in order to provide better information for marine spatial planning. To illustrate this method, the spatiotemporal distributions of 2 sympatric …
Bayesian analysis improves experimental studies about temporal patterning of aggression in fish.
2017
Made available in DSpace on 2018-12-11T17:15:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2017-12-01 Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) This study aims to describe a Bayesian Hierarchical Linear Model (HLM) approach for longitudinal designs in fish's experimental aggressive behavior studies as an alternative to classical methods In particular, we discuss the advantages of Bayesian analysis in dealing with combined variables, non-statistically significant results and required sample size using an experiment of angelfish (Pterophyllum scalare) species as case study. Groups of 3 individuals were subjected to daily observations recorded for 10 min durin…
Efficient estimation of generalized linear latent variable models.
2019
Generalized linear latent variable models (GLLVM) are popular tools for modeling multivariate, correlated responses. Such data are often encountered, for instance, in ecological studies, where presence-absences, counts, or biomass of interacting species are collected from a set of sites. Until very recently, the main challenge in fitting GLLVMs has been the lack of computationally efficient estimation methods. For likelihood based estimation, several closed form approximations for the marginal likelihood of GLLVMs have been proposed, but their efficient implementations have been lacking in the literature. To fill this gap, we show in this paper how to obtain computationally convenient estim…
Spatial dynamics of an invasive bird species assessed using robust design occupancy analysis: the case of the Eurasian collared dove ( Streptopelia d…
2007
Aim The study of the spatial dynamics of invasive species is a key issue in invasion ecology. While mathematical models are useful for predicting the extent of population expansions, they are not suitable for measuring and characterizing spatial patterns of invasion unless the probability of detection is homogeneous across the distribution range. Here, we apply recently developed statistical approaches incorporating detection uncertainty to characterize the spatial dynamics of an invasive bird species, the Eurasian collared dove (Streptopelia decaocto). Location France. Methods Data on presence/absence of doves were recorded from 1996 to 2004 over 1045 grid cells (28 × 20 km) covering th…
Spatiotemporal Structure of Host‐Pathogen Interactions in a Metapopulation
2009
International audience; The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of species are influenced by spatiotemporal variation in population size. Unfortunately, we are usually limited in our ability to investigate the numerical dynamics of natural populations across large spatial scales and over long periods of time. Here we combine mechanistic and statistical approaches to reconstruct continuous-time infection dynamics of an obligate fungal pathogen on the basis of discrete-time occurrence data. The pathogen, Podosphaera plantaginis, infects its host plant, Plantago lanceolata, in a metapopulation setting where the presence of the pathogen has been recorded annually for 6 years in similar to 4,00…