Search results for " Probability"
showing 10 items of 2176 documents
Efficiency of French privatizations: a dynamic vision
2004
The program of French privatizations is one of the principal worldwide programs as for the volume of the equity issues. A reading of the process of privatization through the corporate governance theory resulted in working out a model making it possible to take into account, on the one hand, the time dimension of the process of privatization, on the other hand, the contextual, organizational, governance and strategic variables which influence this process. After having replicated a certain number of traditional tests, we carried out a test of this model on a sample of 19 French privatized firms and on a seven years horizon, which made it possible to obtain the following conclusions. The favo…
A Multisite Preregistered Paradigmatic Test of the Ego-Depletion Effect
2021
We conducted a preregistered multilaboratory project ( k = 36; N = 3,531) to assess the size and robustness of ego-depletion effects using a novel replication method, termed the paradigmatic replication approach. Each laboratory implemented one of two procedures that was intended to manipulate self-control and tested performance on a subsequent measure of self-control. Confirmatory tests found a nonsignificant result ( d = 0.06). Confirmatory Bayesian meta-analyses using an informed-prior hypothesis (δ = 0.30, SD = 0.15) found that the data were 4 times more likely under the null than the alternative hypothesis. Hence, preregistered analyses did not find evidence for a depletion effect. Ex…
Management of Distribution Risks and Digital Transformation of Insurance Distribution—A Regulatory Gap in the IDD
2021
The Insurance Distribution Directive (IDD) aims to regulate insurance distribution in the EU regardless of distribution channels and means. Although new technologies affect insurance distribution, the IDD does not explicitly regulate this digital transformation. Insurers and intermediaries must comply with detailed business conduct rules that aim to counteract distribution risks. However, the IDD exempts ancillary insurance intermediaries from its scope when they meet certain conditions. The article highlights the regulatory framework on insurance, requiring insurers and intermediaries to address distribution risks, and analyses how this exemption affects the management of distribution risk…
Computer-assisted orientation and drawing of archaeological pottery.
2018
Archaeologists spend considerable time orienting and drawing ceramic fragments by hand for documentation, to infer their manufacture, the nature of the discovery site and its chronology, and to develop hypotheses about commercial and cultural exchanges, social organisation, resource exploitation, and taphonomic processes. This study presents a survey of existing solutions to the time-consuming problem of orienting and drawing pottery fragments. Orientation is based on the 3D geometry of pottery models, which can now be acquired in minutes with low-cost 3D scanners. Several methods are presented: they are based on normal vectors, or circle fittings, or profile fittings. All these methods see…
Comparison of different uncertainty techniques in urban stormwater quantity and quality modelling
2011
Abstract Urban drainage models are important tools used by both practitioners and scientists in the field of stormwater management. These models are often conceptual and usually require calibration using local datasets. The quantification of the uncertainty associated with the models is a must, although it is rarely practiced. The International Working Group on Data and Models, which works under the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, has been working on the development of a framework for defining and assessing uncertainties in the field of urban drainage modelling. A part of that work is the assessment and comparison of different techniques generally used in the uncertainty assessm…
Application of latent nestling method using Coloured Petri Nets for the Fault Diagnosis in the wind turbine subsets
2008
This paper presents an application example using the lating nestling method for the fault diagnosis based in the use of coloured Petri nets, to a lubrication and cooling system in the wind turbinepsilas gearbox with a critical subsystem as far as failure probability. It demonstrate the synthesis capacity of the method for any model of diagnosis and isolation, giving as opposed to know the contributed advantages other methodologies, as those based in finite state machine.
Uncertainty estimation of a complex water quality model: The influence of Box–Cox transformation on Bayesian approaches and comparison with a non-Bay…
2012
Abstract In urban drainage modelling, uncertainty analysis is of undoubted necessity. However, uncertainty analysis in urban water-quality modelling is still in its infancy and only few studies have been carried out. Therefore, several methodological aspects still need to be experienced and clarified especially regarding water quality modelling. The use of the Bayesian approach for uncertainty analysis has been stimulated by its rigorous theoretical framework and by the possibility of evaluating the impact of new knowledge on the modelling predictions. Nevertheless, the Bayesian approach relies on some restrictive hypotheses that are not present in less formal methods like the Generalised L…
A Mixed Approach for Determination of Initial Cable Forces in Cable-Stayed Bridges and the Parameters Variability
2015
The determination of initial cable forces in cable-stayed bridges is an important first step in design and analysis of the structure under external loads. Adjustments of stay forces are often required during construction in order to assure the requested behaviour of the bridge in terms of final geometrical configuration and internal force distribution. An accurate assessment of the stay tensioning system allows designers to obtain a good result at the end of construction, by considering the parameters involved as deterministic quantities, assuring the observance of the execution tolerances during works. Actual loads and their variations need instead a stochastic approach which can give usef…
Variable Selection in Predictive MIDAS Models
2014
In short-term forecasting, it is essential to take into account all available information on the current state of the economic activity. Yet, the fact that various time series are sampled at different frequencies prevents an efficient use of available data. In this respect, the Mixed-Data Sampling (MIDAS) model has proved to outperform existing tools by combining data series of different frequencies. However, major issues remain regarding the choice of explanatory variables. The paper first addresses this point by developing MIDAS based dimension reduction techniques and by introducing two novel approaches based on either a method of penalized variable selection or Bayesian stochastic searc…
A predictive maintenance policy with imperfect monitoring
2010
For many systems,failure is a very dangerous or costly event. To reduce the occurrence of this event,it is necessary to implement a preventive maintenance policy to replace the critical elements before failure.Since elements do not often exhibit incipient faults, they are replaced before a complete exploiting of their useful life.To conjugate the objective of exploiting elements for almost all their useful life with the objective to avoid failure,condition based and,more recently,predictive maintenance policies have been proposed.This paper deals with this topic and proposes a procedure for the computation of the maintenance time that minimizes the global maintenance cost.By adopting a stoc…